ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, reported that the latest CME FedWatch data shows a 98.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its June meeting. The same data places the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut in June at 1.5%. The figures outline the probability distribution for different June policy-rate outcomes, with the unchanged-rate scenario accounting for the largest share.
July Rate Path Probabilities
For July, CME FedWatch shows a 91.3% probability that rates will remain unchanged. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate increase is listed at 7.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is listed at 1.4%. Compared with the June figures, the July data includes both cumulative rate-hike and rate-cut outcomes alongside the no-change scenario.
CME FedWatch is one of the tools used to track interest-rate expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The reported data only specifies the corresponding probabilities for June and July outcomes: for June, no change at 98.5% and a 25-basis-point cumulative cut at 1.5%; for July, no change at 91.3%, a 25-basis-point cumulative hike at 7.4%, and a 25-basis-point cumulative cut at 1.4%.