According to a report by Jin10, the CME FedWatch Tool, which derives implied probabilities of Federal Reserve interest rate moves from 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices, shows the latest market expectations for the upcoming June and July meetings.
As of the latest data, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady at the June meeting stands at 96.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is just 3.6%. This indicates market participants overwhelmingly expect no change in the policy stance by that time, and see little room for near-term monetary easing.
Looking further ahead to the July meeting, the probability of unchanged rates drops slightly to 88.5%, but remains the dominant scenario. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike rises to 8.2%, while that of a 25-basis-point cut edges down to 3.2%. Compared with the June figures, the modest uptick in hike expectations suggests some participants are now pricing in a small chance of rate increase later in the summer, even as the base case remains a pause.