CME FedWatch: 96.4% Probability of Fed Holding Rates Steady in June, July Rate Hike Odds at 8.2%

CME's FedWatch tool, as of June 5, assigns a 96.4% probability to the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady at its June meeting. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut stands at just 3.6%.

For July, rate expectations shift somewhat. While the chance of no change remains high at 88.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike rises to 8.2%, and the chance of a 25 bps cut falls to 3.2%. The data, derived from federal funds futures, suggests the market's baseline scenario is a prolonged pause through the summer.