The CME FedWatch tool shows markets are overwhelmingly expecting the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at its April meeting. According to the latest probabilities, there is a 99% chance of no rate change in April, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike stands at just 1%. The pricing suggests traders see little reason for the Fed to shift policy in the near term.
June expectations also point to a hold
Looking further ahead, market expectations for the June meeting remain centered on policy stability as well. CME data indicates a 2.6% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, a 96.4% chance that rates will stay unchanged, and a 1% likelihood of a rate increase. In other words, while markets are not fully ruling out a move, they are strongly leaning toward the Fed maintaining its current stance for the next several months.
For crypto markets, the Fed’s rate path remains a key macro factor shaping risk appetite. Higher-for-longer rates can limit liquidity expansion, while expectations for no immediate policy change may reduce the risk of sudden market volatility tied to surprise central bank action. The latest FedWatch pricing therefore points more toward continuity than any imminent policy pivot.
Market-implied probabilities, not official guidance
It is important to note that the CME FedWatch tool reflects market-implied probabilities derived from interest rate futures, not direct guidance from the Federal Reserve itself. Those expectations can shift quickly if inflation, labor market data, or broader financial conditions change. For now, however, market consensus appears clear: the dominant expectation is for the Fed to keep rates steady in both April and June.