CME FedWatch data shows markets assigning a 67.5% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged through September, with a 32.5% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike by that point. For October, the same data puts the probability of no rate change at 53.3%. It assigns a 39.8% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase and a 6.8% chance of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase. The figures were cited by Odaily in a newsflash that referenced Jinse. The update focuses strictly on the probability distribution shown by CME’s FedWatch tool and does not include any added market interpretation beyond those published numbers.
According to CME FedWatch data cited by Odaily, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged through September stands at 67.5%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike by then is 32.5%.
For October, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 53.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 39.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 6.8%.
The figures were published in a newsflash by Odaily, citing Jinse.
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