According to Jin10, CME FedWatch data now points to a higher probability that the Federal Reserve will deliver a total of 25 basis points of rate hikes by September. The tool shows a 36.8% probability that rates will remain unchanged through September, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase stands at 63.2%. The probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase by that point is 0%.
Before the latest Federal Reserve decision, those September probabilities stood at 17.8%, 60.2%, and 22%, respectively. Looking further out to October, the probability of no rate change is 26.2%, the odds of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase are 55.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase is 18.2%. The probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point increase by October is 0%.
Before the Fed decision, the corresponding October probabilities were 11.9%, 46.1%, 34.7%, and 7.3%.
According to Jin10, CME FedWatch data shows a 36.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged through September. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate increase stands at 63.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase is 0%.
Before the latest Federal Reserve decision, those September probabilities were 17.8%, 60.2%, and 22%, respectively.
For October, the probability of no rate change is 26.2%. The odds of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase are 55.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase is 18.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point increase is 0%.
Before the Fed decision, the corresponding October probabilities were 11.9%, 46.1%, 34.7%, and 7.3%, respectively.
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