With the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting set for September 17 — less than two weeks away — futures markets and prediction platforms are sending a remarkably unified signal: traders overwhelmingly anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut, assigning it an 89% probability. The chance of a deeper 50-basis-point reduction stands at 11%, while odds of holding rates steady or hiking are negligible.
CME Fedwatch Tool: 89% Probability for a Quarter-Point Cut
The CME Fedwatch tool, which derives probabilities from fed funds futures contracts, shows a 89% likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut to 4.00%–4.25% as of September 6. A 50-basis-point reduction to 3.75%–4.00% carries an 11% chance. This near-unanimous pricing reflects strong conviction among futures traders that the Fed will opt for a moderate easing move.
Polymarket and Kalshi: Prediction Markets Confirm the View
Blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket reports an 86% probability for a quarter-point cut, with 11% for a larger 50-bps move and only 3% for no change. Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows similar figures: 87% for a 25-bps cut, 11% for 50 bps, and 4% for unchanged rates. Rate hike bets remain below 1% on both platforms.
The convergence of data from CME futures, Polymarket, and Kalshi underscores a powerful consensus: investors widely expect the Fed to ease borrowing costs at the upcoming meeting. While a slim possibility of a more aggressive 50-bps cut remains, the overwhelming majority bets on a measured reduction. Any deviation — a hold or a hike — could trigger significant market volatility.