Bitcoin briefly traded above $72,000 after a ceasefire helped push oil down from nearly $117 a barrel into the low $90s. Equities and other risk assets also moved higher as markets responded to the immediate drop in geopolitical stress. David Duong of Coinbase, though, argued that the move looks more like short-term relief than a clean reset in market risk.
Duong said the ceasefire reduced the danger of an immediate energy shock, but it did not settle the deeper disputes behind the conflict. Major shipping companies have not fully resumed operations through the Strait of Hormuz, still citing security concerns, and that has kept strain in the physical oil market. He called the ceasefire “a genuinely constructive development,” while warning that markets have not fully unwound risk.
Labor data leaves the Fed in a difficult spot
Duong also pointed to the Federal Reserve as a major variable for Bitcoin. March nonfarm payrolls came in at 178,000, well above expectations, suggesting the labor market still has resilience. At the same time, labor-force participation stayed at 61.9% and wage growth slowed to an annual rate of 3.5%. The headline looked strong. The details were less clear, especially with ongoing payroll revisions complicating the picture.
In Duong’s view, lower acute oil risk does not automatically make the Fed’s job easier. Economic momentum has not weakened enough to clearly justify lower rates, and inflation concerns tied to the recent conflict have not fully faded. That leaves Bitcoin tied not just to crypto-specific flows, but to whether macro conditions turn more supportive.
Oil thresholds now shape the near-term crypto outlook
Duong framed crude as the clearest market signal to watch. He noted that repeated failures to break above $100 a barrel at the end of March suggested a ceiling, yet later buying and the brief move toward $117 showed how quickly pressure can return if uncertainty stays elevated.
Even after the ceasefire-triggered pullback in futures, oil remains above pre-conflict levels. Duong outlined two scenarios. If crude falls and holds below $84, inflation worries may ease faster and markets could normalize more quickly. If oil climbs back above $100, traders may start pricing in a longer conflict and broader risk-off pressure across stocks and crypto. For Bitcoin, the post-ceasefire bounce is still vulnerable to that macro path.