Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode's new Charting Crypto report finds investors heading into Q4 with cautious optimism, anchored by supportive liquidity, regulatory momentum, and a macro backdrop that could favor bitcoin and ether.
Survey Highlights and Investor Sentiment
Based on a survey of over 120 global investors conducted between Sept. 17 and Oct. 3, 2025, the report reveals that 67% of institutional and 62% of non-institutional respondents hold a positive outlook on bitcoin over the next three to six months. However, views on the market cycle diverge: 45% of institutions believe the market is in a late-bull phase, compared to only 27% of non-institutions. Macro conditions are the top tail risk cited by both groups (38% for institutions, 29% for non-institutions).
Macro Outlook and Liquidity Factors
After the Oct. 10 leverage flush, the report’s topline view remains “cautiously optimistic.” The authors see resilient liquidity, a favorable macro environment, and constructive policy signals—particularly in the United States—as the key pillars supporting digital assets. They expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in Q4, a path that could encourage some of the roughly $7 trillion currently parked in money-market funds to rotate into risk assets. Coinbase's custom global M2 index, which historically leads bitcoin, signals favorable liquidity entering Q4, though it also flags a possible tightening patch in November. Policy developments, including timelines for U.S. market-structure legislation, as well as dynamics in Europe and Asia, will help define the pace and breadth of adoption by year-end.
On-Chain Dynamics: Bitcoin and Ether
Bitcoin’s market dynamics reveal long-term holders remain largely steady. Illiquid supply dropped just 2% in Q3, while liquid supply rose 12%—a sign that many seasoned holders kept coins parked even as prices hit record levels. This suggests a strong conviction among long-term investors. Ether, meanwhile, is seeing expanding participation and falling barriers to entry. For the first time, U.S. spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net inflows of $9.4 billion in Q3, outpacing BTC spot ETFs’ $8.0 billion. Activity on Ethereum and its layer-2 networks reached new highs, while average fees eased to two-year lows. This combination of higher throughput and lower costs has aligned with improving sentiment measures for ether through mid-year.
Institutional Demand and Digital Asset Treasuries
Institutional demand continues to be shaped by digital asset treasuries (DATs). Bitcoin DATs now hold roughly 3.5% of circulating supply, while leading ether-focused DATs hold about 3.7% of ETH supply. Although valuations for many DATs (measured by market-cap-to-NAV) softened late in Q3, the authors still expect DATs to provide meaningful demand in the quarter ahead. The report also highlights that non-U.S. investors and institutions are increasingly allocating to bitcoin, supported by a gradual clarification of global regulatory frameworks. The combination of macro tailwinds, on-chain strength, and institutional adoption positions the crypto market for potential upside in Q4, though risks such as a potential November liquidity squeeze and macro headwinds remain under watch.