Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode have laid out a cautiously optimistic outlook for the crypto market heading into the fourth quarter of 2025, arguing that supportive liquidity conditions, constructive policy developments, and a macro backdrop that could favor risk assets are helping sustain a positive bias toward bitcoin and ether.
In their latest Charting Crypto market briefing, the two firms said sentiment has held up even after the October 10 leverage flush. Their central view is not one of unchecked exuberance, but rather a measured expectation that the market can continue higher if liquidity remains resilient and macro conditions do not deteriorate materially.
Survey Data Shows Broad but Measured Optimism
The report draws on a survey of more than 120 global investors conducted between September 17 and October 3, 2025. According to the findings, 67% of institutional respondents and 62% of non-institutional respondents said they were constructive on bitcoin over the next three to six months.
That headline figure suggests a market that remains broadly bullish, but not uniformly confident. Institutions appeared more willing than non-institutions to characterize the current setup as mature in the cycle. 45% of institutional investors said crypto is in a late-bull phase, compared with just 27% of non-institutional respondents.
At the same time, both groups identified macro conditions as the leading tail risk. That concern was cited by 38% of institutional participants and 29% of non-institutional ones, underscoring that even with improving sentiment, the broader economic backdrop remains the dominant variable for digital assets.
Liquidity and Fed Expectations Anchor the Q4 View
One of the report’s main pillars is liquidity. Coinbase and Glassnode argue that the market is entering Q4 with a still-supportive liquidity backdrop, even if conditions could turn more mixed later in the quarter. The analysts said this matters because crypto has remained highly sensitive to shifts in global money supply, central bank policy expectations, and risk appetite across broader markets.
The report specifically expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in Q4. If that path materializes, the firms believe some capital currently parked on the sidelines could begin moving back into higher-beta assets, including crypto. They point to the roughly $7 trillion sitting in money-market funds as evidence that substantial deployable capital still exists outside the market.
Even so, the outlook is not presented as linear. Coinbase’s custom global M2 index, which the report says has historically shown a leading relationship with bitcoin, signals favorable liquidity at the start of Q4 while also warning of a possible tightening patch in November. That makes the near-term setup constructive, but not free from interruption.
Bitcoin May Hold a Structural Edge Early in the Quarter
On positioning, the report suggests that bitcoin may have the advantage in early Q4. The reasoning is partly structural: bitcoin continues to benefit from relatively steady long-term holder behavior, while risk-taking in alternative assets may require more selectivity.
Glassnode’s on-chain observations show that long-term holders have remained largely stable despite record prices. During the third quarter, illiquid supply fell by only 2%, while liquid supply rose 12%. In practical terms, that suggests many experienced holders did not materially unwind their positions even as the market pushed to new highs.
That dynamic matters because a market supported by patient holders can be more resilient during periods of volatility. It also reinforces bitcoin’s role as the more defensive large-cap crypto asset when macro uncertainty remains elevated.
Ether’s Setup Improves Through ETF Flows and Network Activity
While bitcoin may be favored structurally at the start of the quarter, the report paints an increasingly constructive picture for ether. The key shift is that participation is broadening while friction on the network is falling.
For the first time, U.S. spot ETH ETF inflows reached $9.4 billion in Q3, exceeding the $8.0 billion that went into spot BTC ETFs during the same period. That reversal is notable because it suggests that institutional and market demand for ether has expanded meaningfully beyond its earlier positioning as a secondary allocation behind bitcoin.
The report also points to stronger underlying network fundamentals. Activity across Ethereum and its layer-2 ecosystem rose to new highs, while average fees dropped to their lowest level in two years. That combination of higher throughput and lower cost is significant because it improves usability without sacrificing the network’s role as a base layer for on-chain applications.
According to the report, those trends aligned with improving sentiment measures for ETH through the middle of the year, strengthening the case that ether’s recent support is not purely narrative-driven, but increasingly tied to observable adoption and capital flow data.
Digital Asset Treasuries Remain a Key Demand Channel
Another important theme in the report is the continuing role of digital asset treasuries (DATs). These entities are becoming a meaningful source of structural demand for major crypto assets.
Coinbase and Glassnode estimate that bitcoin-focused DATs now hold roughly 3.5% of circulating BTC supply. For ether, the leading ETH-oriented DATs hold about 3.7% of total ETH supply. These are not trivial figures, particularly in markets where available float and long-term holder behavior can have a large impact on price formation.
Although market-cap-to-NAV valuations for many DATs softened late in the third quarter, the report’s authors still expect them to contribute meaningful demand in the months ahead. In other words, even if enthusiasm around these vehicles cooled somewhat, they remain relevant from a flow and supply-absorption perspective.
Policy Progress Could Shape Adoption Into Year-End
Beyond market structure and flows, the report emphasizes regulation and policy as another crucial driver for Q4. In particular, the authors cite constructive signals in the United States, including the timeline for market-structure legislation, as factors that could influence confidence and institutional participation.
They also note that developments outside the U.S., especially in Europe and Asia, will matter in determining how broad adoption becomes by year-end. The implication is that Q4 performance may not depend solely on domestic U.S. monetary conditions, but also on how quickly clearer regulatory frameworks emerge across major jurisdictions.
A Bullish Case, but Not an Unconditional One
Overall, the report’s message is not that crypto is entering an unchecked melt-up. Instead, it argues that the market has a credible path to further upside if liquidity stays supportive, policy momentum continues, and macro stress remains manageable.
Within that framework, bitcoin appears to retain the cleaner near-term setup, supported by steady long-term holder behavior and a market structure that may be more resilient at the start of the quarter. Ether, meanwhile, is gaining ground through stronger ETF inflows, higher network participation, and lower transaction frictions, giving it a firmer fundamental story than earlier in the year.
The main caveat remains the macro backdrop. Even with positive survey readings and improving structural indicators, the largest risk identified by investors is still the broader economy. That means Q4 may reward disciplined positioning more than outright speculation, especially if November brings the tightening period flagged by Coinbase’s liquidity indicators.
For now, Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode’s joint assessment suggests that investors are leaning bullish, but with eyes wide open. The market may have reasons to advance, yet its progress will likely depend on whether liquidity, regulation, and macro conditions continue to align.