Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode’s latest fourth-quarter market briefing presents a measured but constructive view of crypto heading into Q4. The report argues that investors are entering the quarter with cautious optimism, supported by resilient liquidity conditions, improving policy signals, and a macro backdrop that may remain favorable for both bitcoin and ether.
The report is based on a survey of more than 120 global investors conducted between Sept. 17 and Oct. 3, 2025, and combines investor sentiment with on-chain and market-structure analysis. While the tone is not outright euphoric, the authors suggest that the setup for the quarter remains constructive after the leverage flush seen on Oct. 10.
Bitcoin sentiment remains positive, though cycle views differ
One of the clearest takeaways from the report is that investors continue to hold a favorable medium-term view on bitcoin. Over the next three to six months, 67% of institutional respondents and 62% of non-institutional respondents said they are positive on bitcoin. That suggests broad support across investor groups, even if confidence is somewhat stronger among institutions.
At the same time, the report highlights a divergence in how different investors interpret the current stage of the cycle. Among institutional respondents, 45% believe the market is already in a late-bull phase, compared with only 27% of non-institutional respondents. That gap matters because it implies institutions may be more constructive on price direction while also being more aware of cycle maturity and the possibility of sharper volatility.
Both groups identify macro conditions as the leading tail risk. 38% of institutional respondents and 29% of non-institutional respondents cited macro factors as the top downside threat. In other words, even as sentiment improves, investors are still watching the broader economic environment closely.
Liquidity and expected Fed cuts frame the quarter
The report’s broader thesis rests on liquidity, monetary policy, and regulation. Coinbase and Glassnode say the combination of resilient liquidity, a favorable macro setup, and constructive policy momentum—particularly in the United States—forms the foundation for their Q4 outlook.
A central assumption in the report is that the Federal Reserve could deliver two rate cuts in Q4. If that scenario plays out, it could encourage some of the capital parked in low-risk instruments to move further out on the risk curve. The report points to roughly $7 trillion currently sitting in money-market funds, framing that pool of sidelined capital as a potential source of incremental demand if financial conditions loosen.
This does not mean the authors expect a straight-line rally. Rather, their argument is that easing policy and supportive liquidity conditions could create a more favorable environment for crypto assets, particularly if investors regain confidence that macro pressure is moderating.
Bitcoin may lead early, while alt exposure requires more care
Structurally, the report suggests bitcoin may have an advantage in the early part of the quarter. In contrast, positioning in alternative crypto assets may require more selectivity and caution. That view is tied partly to bitcoin’s supply dynamics and the behavior of long-term holders.
According to the report, bitcoin’s illiquid supply fell only 2% in the third quarter, while liquid supply increased by 12%. The authors interpret this as a sign that many experienced holders kept their coins off the market even as prices reached record levels. For market participants, that can be read as a constructive signal: veteran holders do not appear to be distributing aggressively, even as trading activity and available supply increase.
This balance matters because it suggests bitcoin still benefits from a relatively firm holder base. While more liquid supply can help market functioning, the limited decline in illiquid supply indicates that conviction among long-term participants has not materially weakened.
Ether gains support from ETF flows and cheaper on-chain activity
Ether’s story in the report is different from bitcoin’s. Rather than focusing primarily on holder behavior, the authors emphasize expanding participation and declining transaction frictions. The standout data point is that U.S. spot ETH ETF inflows reached $9.4 billion in Q3, surpassing BTC spot ETF inflows of $8.0 billion over the same period. According to the report, this was the first time ether spot ETF inflows outpaced bitcoin spot ETF inflows in a quarter.
That development is paired with improving on-chain conditions. Activity across Ethereum and its layer-2 networks climbed to high levels, while average fees fell to two-year lows. In practical terms, this means users were able to transact more while paying less, a combination that tends to improve network usability and strengthen sentiment.
The report says this mix of higher throughput and lower costs aligned with improving sentiment for ETH through the middle of the year. For market observers, the implication is that ether’s investment case in Q4 is not only about price action or ETF headlines, but also about a network that appears to be supporting broader usage with lower friction.
Digital asset treasuries remain a meaningful demand channel
Another important theme in the report is the role of digital asset treasuries, or DATs, in shaping institutional demand. Bitcoin-focused DATs now hold roughly 3.5% of circulating BTC supply, while leading ether-focused DATs hold about 3.7% of ETH supply.
Although valuations for many DATs—measured by market cap relative to net asset value—softened late in the third quarter, the authors still expect them to provide meaningful demand in the period ahead. That matters because treasury-style vehicles can create a more persistent source of buying interest than purely speculative flows, especially when institutions are looking for structured ways to gain exposure.
The report stops short of portraying DATs as an unlimited demand engine, but it clearly treats them as a significant part of the current market structure for both BTC and ETH.
Watch November liquidity and global policy developments
From a macro perspective, the report highlights Coinbase’s custom global M2 index, which it says has historically shown a leading relationship with bitcoin. That indicator points to supportive liquidity conditions as Q4 begins, but it also warns of a possible tighter patch in November. This nuance reinforces the report’s central tone: constructive, but not complacent.
Regulation is the other major variable. The authors say progress on U.S. market-structure legislation, along with developments in Europe and Asia, will help determine the speed and breadth of adoption through year-end. In that sense, the quarter’s outcome may depend not only on market positioning and macro liquidity, but also on whether policymakers continue to reduce uncertainty around digital assets.
Overall, the Coinbase-Glassnode briefing does not make an aggressively bullish call. Instead, it outlines a market environment in which bitcoin appears structurally solid, ether is benefiting from stronger participation and ETF demand, and macro conditions may remain supportive if rate cuts and liquidity trends develop as expected. For investors, the message is clear: the setup for Q4 looks favorable, but discipline remains essential.