Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode say investors are entering the fourth quarter with cautious optimism, supported by resilient liquidity conditions, improving policy signals, and a macro backdrop that may continue to favor bitcoin and ether. In their latest Charting Crypto briefing, the two firms present a market view that is constructive but measured, arguing that upside remains possible after the October 10 leverage flush, even as macro uncertainty continues to dominate the risk landscape.
The report is based in part on a survey of more than 120 global investors conducted between September 17 and October 3, 2025. Its main conclusion is not that markets are free of risk, but that key drivers entering Q4 remain supportive enough to justify a cautiously bullish stance on large-cap digital assets, especially bitcoin and, increasingly, ether.
Survey Data Shows Positive Bitcoin Sentiment
One of the clearest findings in the briefing is that market participants still lean bullish on bitcoin over the next three to six months. According to the report, 67% of institutional respondents and 62% of non-institutional respondents said they hold a positive outlook on bitcoin for that period. That suggests optimism remains broad-based, even if the degree of conviction differs across investor groups.
The two cohorts are less aligned when it comes to where the market currently sits in the broader cycle. Among institutional respondents, 45% believe the market is in a late-bull phase. Only 27% of non-institutional respondents share that view. The gap implies that professional investors may see the rally as more advanced than retail or non-institutional participants do, which in turn may influence positioning, risk management, and sector rotation as the quarter develops.
Despite that difference, both groups agree on the main threat: macro conditions. The report says 38% of institutional investors and 29% of non-institutional investors identified macro factors as the top tail risk. That emphasis is consistent with a market still highly sensitive to rates, liquidity, and broader financial conditions.
Liquidity and Rate-Cut Expectations Support the Q4 Thesis
The report’s broader market stance remains “cautiously optimistic” after the October 10 deleveraging event. Coinbase and Glassnode argue that the flush did not break the underlying setup. Instead, they point to three pillars that continue to support digital assets: resilient liquidity, a favorable macro setting relative to prior quarters, and constructive policy developments, particularly in the United States.
A major part of that outlook hinges on monetary policy. The authors expect the Federal Reserve to deliver two rate cuts in Q4. If that scenario plays out, some portion of the roughly $7 trillion currently parked in money-market funds could begin moving back into risk assets. The report does not claim that all of that capital will flow into crypto, but it argues that even a marginal shift away from the sidelines could improve demand conditions for bitcoin, ether, and other digital assets.
This liquidity lens is central to the report’s framework. Coinbase’s custom global M2 index, which the authors say has historically shown a lead relationship with bitcoin, currently points to supportive conditions as Q4 begins. At the same time, the report cautions that this signal is not uniformly positive across the entire quarter, flagging the possibility of a tighter patch in November. That warning reinforces the report’s balanced tone: constructive overall, but not blind to near-term instability.
Bitcoin May Hold an Early-Quarter Advantage
Structurally, the briefing argues that bitcoin may have the clearest advantage at the start of Q4. While the overall market backdrop appears favorable, the authors suggest that positioning in alternative assets requires more selectivity and caution. In other words, the setup is not necessarily one for indiscriminate risk-taking across the full crypto complex.
Part of bitcoin’s relative strength comes from supply behavior. The report says long-term holders remain largely steady. During the third quarter, bitcoin’s illiquid supply fell just 2%, while liquid supply rose 12%. The authors interpret this as evidence that many experienced holders kept their coins parked despite record prices. That matters because it suggests supply overhang from veteran investors has remained limited, even as the market tested higher levels.
For institutions, this type of holding behavior can reinforce bitcoin’s role as the highest-conviction large-cap crypto asset in periods where macro conditions are supportive but not fully stable. It also helps explain why the report sees bitcoin as having a structural edge earlier in the quarter, particularly if investors prefer relative quality and liquidity over broader speculative rotation.
Ether’s Setup Improves as ETF Flows and Network Activity Rise
While bitcoin may lead on defensive strength and institutional familiarity, ether’s case in the report is built around improving participation and lower friction. The authors highlight a notable milestone from the third quarter: for the first time, U.S. spot ETH ETF inflows reached $9.4 billion, surpassing BTC spot ETF inflows of $8.0 billion over the same period.
That relative outperformance is important because it signals growing investor willingness to allocate to ether beyond bitcoin-first positioning. It also suggests that demand for regulated ETH exposure broadened meaningfully during Q3, a trend the report links to improving sentiment through mid-year.
At the same time, activity across Ethereum and its layer-2 networks reached new highs, while average fees dropped to two-year lows. The report treats that combination as a constructive shift in market structure. Higher throughput typically reflects stronger user participation, while lower transaction costs reduce friction and improve network accessibility. Together, those dynamics help support a more favorable narrative for ether heading into Q4.
Rather than presenting ETH as a simple catch-up trade, the report frames it as an asset benefiting from simultaneous improvements in capital flows and on-chain usage. That does not eliminate volatility, but it does provide a firmer foundation for sentiment than fee-heavy, lower-activity periods seen in earlier phases of the cycle.
Digital Asset Treasuries Remain a Meaningful Demand Source
Another demand channel highlighted in the briefing is the role of digital asset treasuries, or DATs. According to the report, bitcoin-focused DATs now hold roughly 3.5% of circulating BTC supply, while leading ether-focused DATs hold about 3.7% of ETH supply. These figures underscore the growing relevance of treasury-style accumulation strategies in shaping crypto market demand.
The report notes that market-cap-to-NAV valuations for many DATs softened toward the end of Q3. Even so, the authors still expect these entities to remain meaningful buyers in the quarter ahead. Their significance lies not only in the size of holdings, but also in the persistence of demand they can introduce, especially when institutional access and strategic balance-sheet exposure continue expanding.
In practice, DAT activity can help stabilize demand for large-cap assets by creating recurring or structural buying pressure. While the report stops short of claiming DATs will dominate the quarter, it clearly views them as an important component of the current market architecture for both bitcoin and ether.
Policy Progress and Global Adoption Will Shape the Pace of the Quarter
Beyond liquidity and positioning, Coinbase and Glassnode place substantial weight on policy developments. In the United States, market-structure legislation timelines are identified as a meaningful variable for adoption and sentiment. Outside the U.S., developments across Europe and Asia are also expected to influence how quickly and how broadly digital asset adoption expands before year-end.
The report does not make a sweeping prediction that regulation alone will drive prices higher. Instead, it presents policy momentum as part of a broader support system: if liquidity remains constructive and institutional demand stays intact, clearer rules and a more workable market framework could help reinforce participation. If macro conditions worsen, however, those policy gains may not be enough to offset risk aversion.
That balance is what defines the report’s tone. It is neither euphoric nor defensive. The authors see enough evidence to remain constructive on Q4, but they also stress that markets are still vulnerable to tightening, policy delays, or broader macro deterioration.
A Constructive but Not Complacent Outlook
Overall, the Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode briefing presents a view of the crypto market that is favorable but disciplined. Bitcoin remains the cleaner large-cap expression of the Q4 thesis, supported by steady long-term holders, relatively resilient supply dynamics, and continued institutional preference. Ether, meanwhile, appears to be gaining ground through stronger ETF inflows, rising network participation, and lower transaction costs.
Still, the report’s core message is caution as much as optimism. Liquidity looks supportive, the Fed may ease, and policy momentum is improving, but macro conditions remain the biggest tail risk for both institutional and non-institutional investors. For that reason, the firms’ outlook is best understood as selective bullishness rather than a call for unchecked upside across the entire market.
As Q4 unfolds, the path for crypto may depend less on headline enthusiasm and more on whether liquidity holds up, policy progress continues, and macro conditions avoid a meaningful reversal. In that environment, bitcoin and ether appear best positioned, but the report makes clear that conviction should still be accompanied by discipline.