Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode said in a joint market report released on July 24 that they are maintaining a neutral outlook for the crypto market in the third quarter of 2026. The report said total crypto market capitalization excluding stablecoins fell about 12% in the second quarter, while stablecoin supply reached a record high. On-chain data, however, suggests Bitcoin may be moving out of a correction or consolidation phase and into an accumulation phase. The firms pointed to compressed valuations, recently active supply near multi-year lows, and the share of supply in profit falling below its historical statistical lower band, a setup that has historically been associated more with accumulation than distribution. Even so, the report kept a cautious tone because macro liquidity remains tight. It also cited a hawkish Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh, a strong U.S. dollar, geopolitical risks, selling pressure from digital asset treasuries, and net outflows from spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the first half of the year, although the pace of those outflows has started to slow.
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode said in a joint market report released on July 24 that they are keeping a neutral outlook for the crypto market in the third quarter of 2026.
The report said total crypto market capitalization excluding stablecoins fell about 12% in the second quarter, while stablecoin supply climbed to a record high.
On-chain data points to a possible Bitcoin accumulation phase
According to the report, on-chain data suggests Bitcoin may be shifting from a correction or consolidation phase into an accumulation phase. The firms cited compressed valuations, recently active supply near multi-year lows, and the proportion of supply in profit falling below its historical statistical lower band. Historically, that kind of setup has been associated more with accumulation than with distribution.
Macro conditions keep the broader view cautious
Even so, the report kept its broader market stance cautious. It pointed to tight macro liquidity, a hawkish Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh, and a strong U.S. dollar. It also cited geopolitical risks, selling pressure from digital asset treasuries, and net outflows from spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds in the first half of the year, while noting that the pace of those outflows has begun to slow.
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