Coinbase shares fell more than 5% on Wednesday ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings release, with traders turning cautious on the crypto exchange’s near-term results. The stock was trading near $154, far below its 2025 high of $445. Its market value has dropped from nearly $100 billion to about $41 billion.
Analysts cut targets as the stock stays under pressure
Wall Street firms have been lowering their price targets as the broader crypto sell-off weighs on expectations. JPMorgan reduced its target from $399 to $290 while keeping an overweight rating. Cantor Fitzgerald cut its target to $221 from $277, and Citigroup lowered its view from $500 to $400. The most bearish call came from Compass Point analyst Ed Engel, who trimmed his target from $230 to $190 and kept a sell rating.
Sentiment was also hurt by Robinhood’s latest results. After reporting earnings on Tuesday, Robinhood shares dropped more than 10%. A key data point was crypto revenue, which fell by more than 38% in the fourth quarter after posting triple-digit growth in earlier quarters. That result added to concerns that Coinbase may report similar pressure in its own business.
Retail trading slowdown clouds revenue outlook
Third-party data cited in the report showed Coinbase’s retail transaction volume declined by 15% as Bitcoin and other altcoins moved lower. That matters because transaction revenue remains the biggest part of Coinbase’s business. If retail activity cools, the effect tends to show up quickly in quarterly numbers.
Analysts expect Coinbase to post fourth-quarter revenue of about $1.84 billion, down 78% from the same period in 2024. The estimate comes even with revenue contribution from Deribit, the company Coinbase acquired last year. If that forecast holds, annual revenue would fall 19.1% to $7.24 billion.
The pressure may not end with one quarter. The report said Bitcoin had fallen to $67,000 and crypto ETF outflows were continuing, both of which could weigh on the current quarter as well. Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, has also sold the stock, a move that reflects the weak tone around Coinbase heading into earnings.
$143 becomes the key level on the chart
On the weekly chart, COIN has fallen from its all-time high of $445 in July 2025 to around $153. The stock is now below the $190 level, which marks the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. It has also slipped under the 50-week and 100-week exponential moving averages, as well as the weak stop-and-reverse line in the Murrey Math Lines framework.
Traders are now focused on support at $143. That level has held twice since 2024. If the stock breaks below it, the bearish setup would be confirmed in the view cited by the report, with the next downside area near $120, corresponding to the 78.6% retracement level.