Dave Weisberger, co-founder of CoinRoutes, said the October crypto crash looked less like broad panic and more like a coordinated move designed to trigger liquidations. Speaking on the Thinking Crypto podcast, he said the sell-off wiped out $19 billion, with $5 billion of Bitcoin liquidations alone, while many altcoins fell 20% to 70% at the lows.
Weisberger, who built Morgan Stanley’s first program trading system, described the episode as “the greatest mass liquidation event in history.” He also made clear that his view is an allegation, not a proven claim, saying he believes it was manipulation but does not have proof.
The trading setup he described
According to Weisberger, attackers could spend weeks building a position by going long spot and short perpetual futures. Then they wait for a low-liquidity window, dump spot holdings into the market, and place bids in perpetuals far below the prevailing price.
Once prices start falling, leveraged traders get liquidated and forced selling accelerates the move. That chain reaction pushes prices lower, allowing the same traders to buy assets back at distressed levels and lock in large gains. In his telling, the event followed a recognizable playbook rather than a random collapse.
Why DeFi was hit harder
Weisberger said DeFi venues suffered more because positions were visible on-chain. That transparency, which is often presented as a strength, may also have made those markets easier to target during a liquidation cascade. He also said Binance’s auto-deleveraging system was “broken” during the event, though the source material did not include technical detail beyond that statement.
His criticism of the four-year cycle theory
Weisberger also pushed back on the popular idea that crypto still trades in a reliable four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin halvings. His argument was simple: the theory is built on only three data points.
He compared it to the “Super Bowl Indicator,” a market myth that linked NFL results to stock performance. Even though that pattern once lasted 16 years, he dismissed it as meaningless correlation. In his view, crypto market structure has changed as institutions have entered the space, making older cycle narratives less useful.
Still constructive on the long term
Despite his comments on the crash, Weisberger said he remains bullish over a longer horizon. He noted that Bitcoin’s hash rate is now 6x what it was in 2022. He also said about 10% to 30% of Bitcoin supply has shifted from early holders, whose cost basis ranged from $10 to $1,000, to newer buyers who paid higher prices.
He argued that newer institutional holders are making multi-year allocations rather than leveraged trades. Reflecting that stance, he said his own portfolio is centered on Bitcoin, with Solana and BitTensor as secondary positions and smaller holdings in Zcash and XRP.