CoinShares' latest report argues that quantum computing's threat to Bitcoin security is largely exaggerated and remains manageable. The firm estimates only about 1.6 million BTC (8% of total supply) resides in legacy P2PK addresses where public keys are exposed. Among these, just 10,200 BTC sits in UTXOs large enough to potentially disrupt the market if stolen—the rest hold amounts too small to justify an attack.
Millions of Qubits Needed—Decades Away
Breaking Bitcoin's secp256k1 elliptic curve requires roughly millions of logical qubits. By contrast, Google's latest Willow processor operates at only 105 qubits. Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet noted: 'To break current asymmetric cryptography, you'd need millions of qubits. Willow is 105.' Even under optimistic projections, stealing coins from the 32,607 UTXOs averaging 50 BTC each would take millennia.
Caution Against Aggressive Upgrades
Proposals for soft forks or burning vulnerable coins carry risks—prematurely introducing quantum-resistant addresses could introduce bugs or undermine decentralization. Dr. Adam Back emphasized that 'Bitcoin can adopt post-quantum signatures. Schnorr signatures paved the way. Users can voluntarily migrate funds to secure addresses today.' The report stresses that no drastic protocol changes are needed yet; gradual defensive upgrades and user migration suffice for now.