CoinShares says quantum computing presents a real but distant security issue for Bitcoin, not an immediate threat to the network. In its latest research note, the digital asset manager said that even under aggressive assumptions, a practical quantum attack on Bitcoin is likely at least 10 years away.
The report argues that fears of quantum machines suddenly breaking Bitcoin cryptography are often overstated. Bitcoin relies on cryptographic systems to secure private keys and validate transactions. In theory, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer running tools such as Shor’s algorithm could derive private keys from public keys and gain access to funds held in certain address types. CoinShares’ point is simple: the theory exists, but the hardware required is still far beyond what is available today.
Exposure is concentrated in older Bitcoin address types
According to CoinShares, only a limited portion of Bitcoin’s supply is even theoretically exposed to this kind of attack. The firm estimates that about 8% of total supply sits in older legacy addresses where public keys are already visible on-chain, making them the main area of concern in a quantum scenario.
That figure does not mean all of those coins could be compromised at once. CoinShares said the amount that would be immediately vulnerable in a way that could destabilize Bitcoin is much smaller. The report draws a clear line between a theoretical attack surface and a network-wide failure scenario.
SHA-256 is still viewed as resilient
The note also says Bitcoin’s core hashing function, SHA-256, remains resilient. Quantum computers may improve brute-force search capabilities, but under realistic assumptions, that improvement would still fall short of breaking Bitcoin mining or transaction security.
CoinShares treats this as a key distinction. Public-key exposure in some address formats is one issue; the strength of Bitcoin’s hashing layer is another. The report does not suggest that quantum computing is close to undermining the network’s basic security model as it exists today.
Bitcoin has time to adapt through upgrades and user actions
CoinShares said Bitcoin is not a fixed system and has upgraded its cryptography before. If the quantum threat becomes more concrete, the network could move toward quantum-resistant signature schemes through future software changes. That leaves room for adaptation instead of forcing an immediate response.
The report also notes that holders of older addresses already have a defensive option available: moving funds into newer address formats that do not expose public keys until coins are spent. In practice, that means part of the risk can be reduced before any protocol-level transition is required.
CoinShares warns against rushing major changes
At the same time, the firm cautions against premature hard forks or the adoption of untested cryptographic systems. CoinShares said unnecessary action could introduce bugs or weaken decentralization, creating new problems before a real quantum threat exists.
For investors, the firm’s conclusion is direct. Quantum computing is a long-range engineering problem for Bitcoin, not an existential crisis today. CoinShares said the market has enough time to track technological progress, assess vulnerable holdings, and put safeguards in place well before quantum computers become a realistic attack tool.