Three signals suggest the bear market is still deepening
The central question is whether the crypto bear market is close to ending, but the available signals do not yet point to a clear turning point. The report focuses on several indicators that continue to deteriorate. One of the most important is the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index, which has remained negative for a record stretch. In market terms, that usually implies weak spot demand from U.S.-based buyers and a lack of strong absorption on the way down.
Another key pressure point is sentiment around institutional activity. The article notes that selling by Strategy triggered fresh panic. In fragile market conditions, any sign of distribution or balance-sheet stress linked to a high-profile corporate holder can amplify fear well beyond the size of the sale itself, especially when broader conviction is already weak.
Losses are spreading to long-term holders
Beyond exchange-level pricing signals and corporate flows, holder behavior is also turning into a bearish indicator. The report says long-term holders of both Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing widespread losses. That matters because it suggests market stress is no longer confined to short-term traders or speculative leverage. Instead, losses are spreading into the segment of the market that is generally considered more resilient.
When long-term holders move deeper into unrealized loss territory, the market may be entering a more compressed valuation zone, but that does not automatically mean a bottom is in. In many cycles, this stage can still be followed by prolonged weakness, repeated attempts to stabilize, and renewed selling pressure as stronger hands gradually begin to capitulate.
Institutions disagree on both timing and price
The article also reviews institutional estimates for where and when the market might bottom, and the range of views remains wide. Forecasts for timing are clustered between July and December, while projected price levels for a market bottom range from $42,000 to $53,000. That degree of dispersion is itself meaningful: it shows that even professional observers do not yet see a common setup for a confirmed cycle low.
Putting these factors together, the picture remains incomplete from a bottoming perspective. Record negative Coinbase premium readings, panic triggered by Strategy’s BTC selling, and growing losses among long-term holders all point to a market still under pressure. Based on the source, the current cycle has not yet produced an unambiguous signal that the crypto bear market has definitively ended.