The prediction market is pricing in a grim outcome for crypto legislation this year. Polymarket now puts the odds of the Crypto Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 at just 39%, a clear signal that Senate Republicans and Democrats have not found a path to a floor vote.
What the Bill Covers: CFTC vs SEC Roles
H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, creates a full federal framework for digital assets. It designates the CFTC as primary regulator for digital commodities (assets on decentralized blockchains) and the SEC for assets acting as securities. The bill also includes consumer protections, DeFi safe harbors, exchange and broker rules, anti-money laundering measures, and stablecoin provisions.
Progress So Far: House Passed, Senate Stuck
The bill cleared the House on July 17, 2025 with a 294-134 bipartisan vote during Crypto Week. It reached the Senate in September 2025 and was referred to the Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee. On May 14, 2026, the committee advanced it 15-9, with Chairman Tim Scott, all Republicans, and two Democrats backing it. The legislation now sits on the Senate Legislative Calendar as Calendar No. 423 (as of June 1, 2026).
Why 2026 Passage Stalled
Industry pushback on stablecoin yield language and DeFi provisions forced lawmakers to delay planned markups from January to April 2026. Banks oppose platforms offering interest-like returns on stablecoins, fearing deposit outflows; crypto firms say the DeFi safe harbor text is too restrictive. A White House meeting to resolve the stablecoin dispute ended without an agreement.
During May's markup session, senators filed over 100 amendments covering illicit finance, ethics rules for officials holding crypto, and CFTC commissioner nominations. Some were ruled out of order, while several Democrats flagged lingering concerns over consumer safeguards and money laundering controls.
Five Obstacles Blocking a Floor Vote
Stablecoin reward rules remain unsettled; DeFi safe harbor language still lacks consensus; ethics provisions for crypto holdings lie outside the Banking Committee's jurisdiction; the bill needs 60 votes to clear the floor, requiring several Democratic defections; and limited floor time before the August recess and November midterms tightens the window.
To pass in 2026, managers' amendments must resolve top disputes quickly, Senate leadership must prioritize floor time, and bipartisan support must cross 60. If Congress misses that window, the bill rolls into the 2027 session, leaving U.S. crypto firms under enforcement-driven regulation for another year.