Crypto options with a combined notional value of about $1.47 billion are due to expire on Aug. 14, according to a post on X by Greeks.live researcher Adam.
The expiring contracts include 20,000 Bitcoin options, with a put-call ratio of 0.84, a max pain point of $64,000, and notional value of $1.29 billion. Another 96,000 ETH options are also set to expire, carrying a put-call ratio of 0.95, a max pain point of $1,900, and notional value of $180 million.
Bitcoin holds near $64,000 while volatility keeps dropping
Adam said Bitcoin has continued to trade around $64,000 this week. At the same time, realized volatility has kept falling, with RV down to 25%, which he said marks a record low. He added that the metric has now moved below three previous local lows recorded in late October, late January, and early June.
Implied volatility, or IV, has also continued to decline and is now back to levels last seen in early October last year. Adam described overall market sentiment as compressed.
Open interest falls as traders turn cautious
Looking at other major options indicators, Adam said 6% of options are expiring this week and open interest has dropped sharply. He attributed that move mainly to traders who bought the dip last week and then shifted to the sidelines this week.
On positioning, call open interest has fallen noticeably, while Bitcoin’s put-call ratio has returned to what he described as a normal range. Put open interest has only slipped slightly. Upside GEX has become more dispersed, and downside GEX has also started to spread out, leaving the market in what Adam called a broad wait-and-see phase.
Adam says some out-of-the-money options may be worth considering
Adam also said the crypto market has already gone through 10 months of a bear market, with weak performance in the third quarter, continued selling from U.S. capital, and frequent security incidents. Against that backdrop, he said taking positions in some out-of-the-money options is a reasonable choice at this stage.