Bitcoin is still trading above $91,000, while Ether is holding above $3,100. On the first working day of the year, spot BTC and ETH ETFs recorded a combined $646 million in net inflows, and some large altcoins including DOGE posted gains of more than 5%. The market focus now shifts to a packed calendar of US economic releases that could move crypto prices over the next seven days.
The schedule matters because January data is being watched as a key input for the Federal Reserve’s January rate decision. The source notes that December inflation figures were not taken seriously because they were distorted by the government shutdown. That leaves this month’s labor reports, followed by next week’s inflation data, as a more direct test for rate-cut expectations. Volatility is firmly on the table.
January 5 to January 6: Manufacturing data and Fed remarks start the week
Monday begins with Turkey inflation, expected at 31% versus a previous 31.07%. Later in the day, the market gets the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, expected at 48.4 after 48.2. The same day also includes a BGB token announcement and Theta Network (THETA) TDROP 2.0.
On Tuesday, attention turns to Fed/Barkin speaking at 16:00 and the final reading of the US S&P Services PMI at 17:45, with both expectation and prior reading at 52.9. Comments from Fed officials often shape rate pricing before the larger macro releases hit, and crypto tends to react in step.
January 7 to January 9: Labor data becomes the main driver
Wednesday brings the first major cluster of the week. US ADP employment change is expected at 46K after -32K. US JOLTS job openings are expected at 7.715 million versus a previous 7.67 million. US factory orders month-over-month are seen at -1% after 0.2%. The day also includes the Ethereum BPO-2 update.
Thursday is lighter but still important, with US initial jobless claims due at 16:30, following a previous reading of 199K. Friday is the key event window. The US unemployment rate is expected at 4.5% versus 4.6% previously, non-farm payrolls are expected at 57K after 64K, and average earnings are expected at 3.6% versus 3.5%. At 18:00, markets will also get the preliminary University of Michigan sentiment index, with the previous reading at 52.9.
January 11: Aptos unlock enters the watchlist
Sunday adds a crypto-specific supply event, with an Aptos (APT) unlock equal to 0.73% of supply. Unlocks are often tracked closely by spot traders and position holders, especially when they arrive just after a high-impact macro week and before market direction fully settles.
The source also points out that the Fed delivered three rate cuts last year and is now projecting only two this year. If inflation keeps falling and employment continues to contract, that would favor cryptocurrencies. Even so, the short-term reaction to each release remains difficult to call. What is clear is that the coming two weeks are shaping the early trading path for the first quarter of 2026.