According to a new insights report published by Cryptoquant and its analysts at cryptoquant.com, Bitcoin’s recent price rebound closely resembles patterns observed during the 2022 bear market downturns. Despite a 21% climb since November 21, 2025, on-chain and market data continue to support a bear market framework rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
Bitcoin Approaches Key 365-Day Moving Average
Bitcoin rose approximately 21% after a 19% decline that confirmed a bear market when the asset fell below its 365-day moving average. The 365-day MA, currently near $101,000, has historically acted as a regime boundary — past bear cycles repeatedly saw price rejection near this zone before renewed downside. While Bitcoin is approaching this level, it has not reclaimed it. Cryptoquant analysts note that the current price action closely mirrors the 2022 downturn, when similar rallies failed near the same technical threshold.
Demand Conditions: Slight Improvement, Still Weak
The Coinbase Premium Index briefly turned positive, indicating marginal improvement in U.S.-based demand, but Cryptoquant researchers emphasize these episodes have been short-lived. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) paused net selling after offloading roughly 54,000 BTC in November. However, the firm notes that recent ETF behavior does not yet reflect sustained accumulation consistent with lasting recoveries seen in prior cycles. According to Cryptoquant data, apparent spot demand has contracted by approximately 67,000 BTC over the past 30 days and has remained negative since late November. ETF inflows in early 2026 totaled about 3,800 BTC, nearly unchanged from the same period last year.
Rising Exchange Inflows Signal Sell-Side Pressure
Researchers also highlight rising exchange inflows as a growing risk factor. Bitcoin transfers to exchanges reached a seven-day average of roughly 39,000 BTC, the highest level recorded since late November, a pattern historically linked to increased sell-side activity. While Cryptoquant notes that the current trajectory does not have to repeat prior cycles exactly, its analysts conclude that both on-chain and market data continue to support a bear market framework rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
FAQ
- Is Cryptoquant calling this a bull market? No, Cryptoquant states the data still supports a bear market structure.
- Why is the 365-day moving average important? Cryptoquant identifies it as a historical regime boundary for bitcoin price trends.
- Are ETFs driving the rally? Cryptoquant data shows ETFs have paused selling but are not accumulating meaningfully.
- What risk does Cryptoquant see ahead? Rising exchange inflows signal increasing sell-side pressure, according to Cryptoquant.