Bitcoin may have more downside ahead if one of its most reliable onchain cycle gauges continues to mirror past bear-market behavior, according to new research from CryptoQuant. The firm said BTC could still fall below $58,000 before its Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL, reaches levels that have historically aligned with major cycle bottoms.
NUPL measures how much of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is being held at a profit or at a loss relative to the price at which those coins last moved onchain. CryptoQuant argued that when the metric is smoothed using 30-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, it becomes one of the “cleanest” ways to track Bitcoin’s broader market cycle.
NUPL remains positive while past macro bottoms formed below zero
In research published on Monday, CryptoQuant contributor TheChessOnChain highlighted that the current raw NUPL reading stands at 0.158, a level last seen in early 2023. While that suggests profitability has compressed, it still does not resemble the deep stress conditions that marked prior bear-market lows.
The more important signal, according to the analysis, is the 100-day EMA of NUPL. A chart shared by CryptoQuant shows that this longer-term average is trending lower, gradually approaching the region that has historically coincided with cycle bottoms. In earlier bear markets, the key threshold was a move below the zero line.
The analyst pointed to four previous examples. Every time the 100-day EMA of NUPL fell below zero, Bitcoin was in the process of carving out a major bottom: late 2011 near $2, January 2015 at $182, the December 2018 low at $3,206, and the November 2022 FTX-era bottom at $15,792. Based on that history, the current cycle has not yet produced the same type of confirmation.
At around $60,000, BTC still appears above typical bear-market bottom conditions
CryptoQuant estimated that with BTC/USD trading slightly above $60,000, the NUPL 100-day EMA sits near 0.215. That is still well above the zone associated with prior bear-market floors, suggesting that if history repeats closely, Bitcoin may need to decline further before a comparable macro bottom is in place.
The firm therefore described the zero line as the main level to watch over the coming weeks. A move toward that threshold would signal that unrealized profitability across the market is being compressed to a much greater degree, bringing conditions closer to what previous cycle lows looked like onchain.
At the same time, CryptoQuant cautioned against treating the historical pattern as a fixed rule. While the metric has crossed below zero four times in prior cycles, the lows in NUPL have also tended to rise over Bitcoin’s longer history. That leaves open the possibility that this cycle may bottom at a higher level, even if the broader structure still resembles older bear markets.
Other onchain reversal signals are flashing, but traders still expect lower lows
The report comes as several onchain indicators have started to flash reversal signals similar to those seen in 2022. Cointelegraph recently noted that a number of bear-market turning-point metrics have begun to align, suggesting stress conditions are building again across the Bitcoin market.
Even so, many market participants are not yet convinced that the final bottom is in. The prevailing view remains that Bitcoin could still print a fresh macro low before bulls regain sustained control of price action.
That cautious stance was echoed last week by fellow CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr., who said supply-side data is still sending mixed signals across the short and medium term. In his view, the amount of Bitcoin supply held at a loss may still be roughly two months away from levels that have traditionally marked the end of bear markets. Until then, he argued, capitulation should be seen as an ongoing process rather than a completed event.