CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said two Bitcoin profit-and-loss indicators reversed at the same time over the past 10 days, pointing to an improvement from the market’s August lows. The 90-day realized profit/loss ratio moved back above 1 for the first time since late July, reaching 1.003 on Aug. 26. Over the same period, the share of unrealized losses fell from 18.57% on Aug. 16 to 7.35%, a drop of about 60% and the lowest reading since May 11. Adler said losses no longer dominate the market, but stressed that the latest reading sits almost exactly at break-even and still needs confirmation. He also compared current conditions with the 2022-2023 capitulation phase, when the ratio stayed below 1 for 241 days and fell as low as 0.368. Based on the current data, he said the market remains some distance away from the kind of deep capitulation seen in that earlier period. Both indicators suggest holders’ financial conditions have improved sharply from the August trough, though a stronger signal would require the realized profit/loss ratio to stay above 1 and unrealized losses to remain low.
According to ChainCatcher, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said two Bitcoin profit-and-loss indicators reversed at the same time over the past 10 days.
The 90-day realized profit/loss ratio rose above 1 for the first time since late July, reaching 1.003 on Aug. 26. At the same time, the share of unrealized losses dropped from 18.57% on Aug. 16 to 7.35%, down about 60% and marking the lowest level since May 11.
Adler said losses are no longer dominating the market. Even so, he added that the current reading is sitting almost exactly on the break-even line and still needs sustained confirmation.
For historical comparison, he noted that during the 2022-2023 capitulation phase, the ratio remained below 1 for 241 days and fell to a low of 0.368. That suggests current loss pressure is still some distance from the deep capitulation seen in that earlier stretch.
Taken together, the two indicators show that holders’ financial conditions have improved markedly from the August low. Adler said a stronger confirmation would require the realized profit/loss ratio to remain above 1 while unrealized losses stay low.
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