TechFlow reported on June 10 that on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s “percentage of supply in profit” indicator is approaching the key 45% threshold. The metric tracks the share of Bitcoin supply currently held at a profit, and a decline in the reading shows that more holdings have moved below their acquisition cost.
The 45% level and the shift in unrealized profit
According to CryptoQuant, historical data shows that levels around 45% have often appeared during periods of elevated market stress and have been associated with large-scale capitulation risk. By contrast, during bull-market peaks, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit has often exceeded 90%. The current data indicates that a large amount of Bitcoin holdings has shifted from profit into loss, and that the market is going through a deep reset in expectations rather than a phase of euphoria.
From an on-chain perspective, compression in profitability tends to push coins from weaker hands toward long-term holders. CryptoQuant said this redistribution process can intensify volatility in the short term, but historically it has helped build a healthier market structure, while long-term accumulation opportunities are beginning to appear.