Bitcoin’s rebound to $64,600 has not yet been confirmed by signs of new demand, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., who pointed to two flow indicators that remain below zero despite recovering from their July lows. The demand-to-issuance ratio stands at -5.43, while net UTXO age flow is at -85,500 BTC.
Adler said a demand-to-issuance ratio below zero means the contraction in young coin supply is outpacing new issuance, a condition that has lasted for about five months. A negative net UTXO age flow means 85,500 BTC moved into the one-year-and-older holding cohort over the past 30 days, showing that liquid supply is still shrinking.
In his view, the current move higher is being supported mainly by tightening liquid supply, aging coins, long-term holders selling less, and accumulation behavior rather than fresh buying interest. He added that a return of both indicators above zero would be a sign of improvement, while a demand-to-issuance ratio holding above 1 would be needed to confirm a real recovery.
Bitcoin has rebounded to $64,600, but two flow indicators still do not show an influx of fresh demand, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. in a post cited by BlockBeats on Aug. 6.
Both indicators remain below zero
Adler said the demand-to-issuance ratio is at -5.43, while net UTXO age flow stands at -85,500 BTC. Both metrics have recovered from their July lows, though each remains in negative territory.
A demand-to-issuance ratio below zero means the supply of young coins is shrinking faster than new issuance. Adler said that condition has persisted for about five months. A negative net UTXO age flow means 85,500 BTC moved into the one-year-and-older holding cohort over the past 30 days, pointing to a continued contraction in liquid supply.
Rebound is tied to supply tightening, not new buying
Adler said the current rebound is being supported mainly by shrinking liquid supply, including coin aging, long-term holders selling less, and accumulation behavior, rather than by fresh demand.
He added that both indicators moving back above zero would signal improvement. A demand-to-issuance ratio that stays above 1 would be needed to confirm a genuine recovery.
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