Bitcoin briefly moved back above $76,000 this week, but on-chain data is showing a buildup in potential selling pressure. In a report released Wednesday, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said rising exchange inflows and larger deposit sizes are flashing caution even as price rebounds.
Moreno identified $76,800 as the on-chain realized price for traders, calling it a major bear-market resistance level. Historically, rallies have struggled near this zone because holders close to breakeven tend to sell, limiting upside. If that level holds as resistance, the area around $67,600 becomes the key short-term support band to watch.
Hourly inflows jump to the highest level in months
As Bitcoin pushed higher, exchange inflows accelerated with it. Moreno said hourly inflows rose to roughly 11,000 BTC, the highest reading in nearly four months. Transfers of that scale to trading venues are often treated as a warning signal, since coins moved onto exchanges can indicate preparation to sell.
He also pointed to a comparison from March 2026, when hourly inflows reached 9,000 BTC and large deposits accounted for 63% of the total. A short-term price correction followed soon after. That earlier setup, in his view, makes the current increase more notable.
Large holders are driving the latest exchange deposits
CryptoQuant data shows the latest rise in inflows has been led by bigger players. The average Bitcoin exchange deposit size climbed to 2.25 BTC, the highest single-day level since July 2024. The move was driven by several transfers of more than 1,000 BTC into Binance.
Moreno said the pattern resembles what the market saw in January 2026. Back then, the average deposit size approached 2 BTC before Bitcoin dropped from $100,000 to $60,000. The report does not claim the same move is repeating, but it treats the current whale-led exchange deposits as a clear risk signal.
Realized profit has not yet reached the critical threshold
Even with more warning signs appearing, Moreno said profit-taking has not yet hit an extreme level. Daily realized profit is currently around $500 million, still below the $1 billion threshold that has historically marked heavy distribution during bear-market phases.
If Bitcoin holds above $76,000 and continues toward $76,800, daily realized profit could accelerate toward or above $1 billion, adding more selling pressure to the market. For now, the next move depends heavily on whether buyers can absorb supply near that resistance zone.