CryptoQuant says Bitcoin’s 30-day combined demand growth across spot and perpetual futures has fallen to around negative 650,000 BTC. The firm described it as one of the most extreme contractions seen since 2019, with comparable readings appearing only three times before.
According to the report, BTC was trading near $62,650 and had dropped about 10% over the past seven days. On June 6, the price briefly slid to $59,141. Liquidations for that day reached $1.829 billion, affecting about 347,000 traders, a sign that downside pressure and leverage unwinding were hitting at the same time.
Spot demand and leveraged activity are both pulling back
The contraction is not limited to spot buying. CryptoQuant said demand from perpetual contracts is also weakening, suggesting that both longer-term buyers and short-term leveraged participants have been stepping away from the market. When spot flows and speculative leverage retreat together, price swings often become harder to contain.
US spot Bitcoin ETF data supports that view. From May 15 to June 3, the products recorded 13 straight days of net outflows, totaling $4.4 billion, or roughly 59,400 BTC. Over the same stretch, total assets under management fell from $104.3 billion to $80.4 billion. A small $3.05 million net inflow on June 5 ended the streak, but it did little to offset the scale of the previous withdrawals.
CryptoQuant sees an early-stage final washout, not a reversal
CryptoQuant’s stress gauge is now around 40%. The firm said the current setup looks closer to the early part of a “final washout” than to a confirmed market reversal. Past episodes show the same pattern: extreme demand compression has not typically marked an immediate bottom. During the 2022 bear market, a similar contraction was followed by months of heavy volatility and more downside before a longer basing phase took shape.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr said Bitcoin has lost its structural upward momentum and is now in a “Risk-off” phase. His model suggests BTC would need to fall toward $59,000 to enter a medium- to long-term bottoming zone. Another level being watched is the 200-week moving average, currently near $61,300. The report noted that this line acted as cycle-bottom support in 2015, 2018, and 2022.
On-chain profit and loss ratios are nearly even
On-chain data cited in the report shows about 50.43% of BTC supply is in profit, while roughly 49.56% is at a loss. That near-even split has historically appeared late in bear markets, but late does not mean finished. With demand shrinking, ETF capital leaving, leveraged positioning fading, and on-chain profitability sitting near balance, the market remains in a fragile zone.