CryptoQuant says Bitcoin’s latest rebound has started to resemble the pattern seen in March 2022, with the price failing again near the 200-day moving average. According to head of research Julio Moreno, Bitcoin climbed back toward $82,400 before hitting resistance and then falling to a low near $76,000. He said sentiment has now slipped into an “extremely bearish” phase.
In a report released Wednesday, Moreno compared the current move with the market structure from March 2022. Back then, Bitcoin rebounded 43% from its low but was rejected near the 200-day moving average and then resumed its decline. This time, Bitcoin has rallied about 37% from its April 2026 low and once again stalled at the same technical barrier. In his view, that moving average has long separated a relief rally from a renewed downtrend during bear-market conditions.
Derivative-driven rally loses steam as spot demand weakens
CryptoQuant said the sharp recovery in April and May was driven mainly by speculative buying in derivatives markets. Once Bitcoin moved above $82,000, activity in perpetual futures cooled, and traders began taking profit and closing positions. The shift was quick. So was the loss of momentum.
Moreno added that spot demand has been shrinking even faster than derivatives demand. He pointed to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have already shifted from buying to selling. Those ETFs had accumulated 64,000 BTC over 30 days by early May, but have recently posted roughly 4,000 BTC in net sales. Bitfinex analysts said the heavy selling supports the view that the earlier rebound this year was built on a fragile base, with structural capital still lacking.
Negative Coinbase premium keeps pressure on the market
Another signal cited in the report is the Coinbase Premium Index, often used as a gauge of U.S. demand. Through the rally in April and May and the pullback that followed, the indicator stayed below zero. Moreno said a negative premium points to the absence of meaningful participation from both U.S. institutions and retail investors. In past cycles, sustained Bitcoin bull markets were usually backed by a stronger Coinbase premium.
That weakness is also showing up in CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index. The reading has fallen from 40 to the 20 range, entering what the firm describes as “extremely bearish” territory. Moreno said the setup is similar to the period in February and March 2026, when Bitcoin dropped to between $60,000 and $66,000. Historically, when the index remains between 0 and 20, the market tends to either push lower or trade sideways for an extended period.
$70,000 emerges as the level to watch
Moreno said that if the current correction extends, $70,000 could become the most important support level. That price also aligns with the traders’ realized price, a level that acted repeatedly as support or resistance during earlier bear-market phases, including the rebounds in October 2025 and January 2026.
He argued that if Bitcoin falls back toward $70,000, unrealized profits held by short-term traders would be wiped out or turn negative, which could reduce selling pressure and encourage longer-term buying. At publication time, Bitcoin was trading at $77,859, up about 1% over the past 24 hours.