Bitcoin remains firmly in bear-market territory, according to Cryptoquant’s latest February Bear Market Assessment, which argues that multiple onchain indicators continue to deteriorate. The report points to weakening demand, tighter liquidity conditions, and a worsening technical backdrop as signs that the market has yet to find meaningful relief.
Bull score collapses after October reversal
Cryptoquant said bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in early October 2025, when its Bull Score Index was still sitting at a strongly bullish reading of 80. Conditions changed sharply after the Oct. 10 liquidation event, however. Since then, the index has fallen all the way to zero, its most bearish reading, while BTC has traded far below its prior highs, signaling broad structural weakness across the market.
ETF flows reverse as U.S. demand stays soft
The report also highlights a major shift in institutional behavior. At the same point in 2025, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs had accumulated around 46,000 BTC. In 2026, those same products have become net sellers, offloading roughly 10,600 BTC. Cryptoquant says that year-over-year swing represents a 56,000 BTC demand gap, adding sustained selling pressure to the market.
Lower prices have not yet triggered a strong U.S. spot response. Since mid-October, the Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium has remained negative, indicating weaker demand from U.S. investors compared with global markets. Cryptoquant notes that sustained bull markets have historically aligned with a positive U.S. premium, a signal that is notably absent in the current cycle.
Liquidity contracts and spot demand drops 93%
Liquidity data is also flashing warning signs. The 60-day growth rate of Tether’s USDT market capitalization has turned negative, with a contraction of about $133 million. That marks the first decline since October 2023 and stands in sharp contrast to the $15.9 billion expansion recorded in late October 2025. According to Cryptoquant, this pattern is more consistent with bear-market conditions.
Longer-term demand metrics reinforce the bearish view. Apparent spot demand growth has plunged from 1.1 million BTC in early October to just 77,000 BTC now, a drop of roughly 93% over four months. In Cryptoquant’s view, that suggests most of the demand impulse from this cycle has already been exhausted.
Break below 365-day average puts focus on $60,000
From a technical perspective, bitcoin has broken below its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022. Cryptoquant says the decline following that breakdown has been steeper than the early stage of the 2022 bear market, when losses over a comparable period totaled only 6%.
The report adds that bitcoin has also lost several important onchain support levels and has faced repeated rejection at the Traders’ Onchain Realized Price. With BTC now trading below the lower band of that metric, Cryptoquant identifies the $60,000 range as the next major support zone for investors to watch.