Bitcoin’s next major bull run may still be some distance away, according to CryptoQuant verified author Joao Wedson, who argues that the market’s strongest upside phase usually begins only after Long-Term Holder NUPL turns negative. That condition has not been met yet.
The report says Bitcoin has been in a clear bear phase since falling from its $126,000 all-time high in October 2025. The asset has dropped nearly 55% and slipped below $70,000. In Wedson’s view, the next full bull cycle is more likely to begin after deeper market exhaustion appears on-chain.
Long-term holders are still sitting on gains
Wedson points to the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric, or NUPL, as the main signal to watch. The indicator shows whether long-term Bitcoin holders are, on aggregate, in unrealized profit or loss.
Right now, Long-Term Holder NUPL stands at 0.36, which means most long-term investors are still in profit. In prior cycles, the most powerful bullish phase tended to begin only after the metric moved below zero. That negative zone signals that even patient holders are facing unrealized losses, a condition that has historically aligned with seller exhaustion and the late stage of a bear market.
Historical halving pattern points to 2026
The article also frames the timing around Bitcoin’s halving cycles. During the third halving on May 11, 2020, Bitcoin traded near $8,572. Over the following 18 months, price climbed steadily and eventually reached nearly $69,000 in November 2021, a gain of about 705%.
After the April 2024 halving, analysts cited in the piece expect a similar structure to unfold. Based on that historical pattern, the next Bitcoin bull run could begin between early and mid-2026, as lower new supply and stronger demand from Bitcoin ETFs begin to support prices again.
2026 price targets stretch from $150K to $250K
The report also lists a range of projections for Bitcoin in 2026. Standard Chartered and Bernstein now expect the asset to reach around $150,000, tying that view to continued institutional adoption.
Speaking at Blockchain Week in Dubai, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said Bitcoin could hit $180,000 by late 2026, citing better regulation and rising institutional acceptance. Economist and author Robert Kiyosaki has repeated his $250,000 target. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin could move above $200,000 by March 2026 if global liquidity conditions remain supportive.