CryptoQuant said in its latest report that Bitcoin’s “ultimate” bear market bottom is currently near $55,000, the level of its realized price. The firm describes realized price as the average cost basis of all circulating BTC, a level that has historically acted as a major support zone during bear markets. According to the report, spot price is still more than 25% above that level.
Realized price remains the main reference point
The report notes that Bitcoin has often fallen below realized price during past bear cycles. After the FTX collapse, BTC dropped to roughly 24% below realized price. In the 2018 bear market, the drawdown reached about 30% below that line. CryptoQuant said those moves were typically followed by a basing period lasting four to six months, rather than a quick rebound after a single sell-off.
$5.4 billion in daily realized losses did not mark a floor
CryptoQuant also pointed to a surge in realized losses as another sign that Bitcoin has not reached a structural bottom. On February 5, when BTC fell 14% to $62,000, holders realized $5.4 billion in losses in a single day. That was the largest reading since March 2023, when the figure hit $5.8 billion, and it also exceeded the $4.3 billion recorded in the days after the November 2022 FTX crash.
Even so, the firm said the bottom is still not in place. Monthly cumulative realized losses measured in BTC are currently around 300,000 BTC, well below the 1.1 million BTC seen near the bear market bottom at the end of 2022.
Six on-chain indicators remain short of past bottom zones
Across a broader set of on-chain signals, CryptoQuant said none of six key indicators has reached the range usually associated with historical cycle lows. The MVRV ratio stands near 1.13, still above the sub-1.0 area that has often marked extreme undervaluation. NUPL is around 0.18, also above levels seen in prior cycles when unrealized losses approached roughly 20%.
Long-term holders are selling close to break-even, while previous bear market bottoms tended to form only after they accepted losses of around 30% to 40%. At the same time, about 55% of Bitcoin supply remains in profit, compared with the 45% to 50% range often seen near cycle lows. CryptoQuant’s bull-bear cycle indicator has entered a “bear market phase,” but not the “extreme bear market phase” that has historically aligned with price basing. The report adds that this extreme phase usually lasts for months.
CryptoQuant’s message is simple: Bitcoin has already gone through a sharp correction, but on-chain data still does not show a completed bottoming structure.