CryptoQuant’s latest research report reveals that Bitcoin’s 20% rally in April 2026 — from $66,000 to a local high of $79,000 — was driven entirely by demand for perpetual futures contracts, while spot market buying actually contracted during the move. The divergence has prompted analysts to question the sustainability of the advance.
Futures-Dominated Rally With Shrinking Spot Demand
The on-chain analytics firm’s “Apparent Demand” indicator, which tracks the 30-day change in estimated spot purchases on the Bitcoin blockchain, remained negative throughout the entire April price increase. At the same time, demand for perpetual futures rose, suggesting that speculative traders used leverage to push prices higher rather than buying actual coins.
“The gap between rising futures activity and shrinking spot demand is one of the clearest on-chain signals that the price gains are speculative in nature,” CryptoQuant researchers stated. In each phase of the April rally, futures demand was higher while spot demand was actively shrinking — not merely lagging.
Rallies structured in this way tend to be self-limiting, the analysts noted. Without fresh spot buying to absorb elevated prices, the unwinding of futures positions becomes the primary driver of the next decline.
Parallel to the 2022 Bear Market Onset
CryptoQuant draws a direct historical parallel: the same demand pattern appeared at the beginning of the 2022 bear market, when perpetual futures demand rose in isolation while visible spot demand continued to shrink. That condition preceded a multi-month price decline.
Bitcoin has already begun to retreat from its April peak. After reaching $79,000 on April 29, the price slipped to $75,000 — a development consistent with how futures-driven rallies historically resolve once speculative positions are liquidated. As of May 2, BTC was trading just above $78,000 after another attempt at the $80,000 level.
The firm’s Bull Score Index fell from 50 to 40 over the course of April, dropping back below the neutral threshold into bearish territory. The index briefly touched the neutral 50 level in mid-April but slipped to 40 by month’s end despite the price gain. CryptoQuant describes a reading of 40 as “increasingly bearish” and historically associated with sustained price weakness.
Geopolitical Context and OFAC Warning
The market action also coincides with geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Former President Trump declared the conflict over on May 1, giving Bitcoin and equities a further boost. However, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a warning that digital asset payments related to passage through the Strait of Hormuz could carry sanctions risk.
CryptoQuant concludes that without a reversal of visible demand from negative to positive territory, any retrace toward the $79,000 local high will lack the on-chain support needed for a sustained breakout. The data do not guarantee a repeat of the protracted 2022 downturn, but the current demand structure matches the historical profile of price instability, not accumulation.