New data from on-chain analytics firm Cryptoquant reveals that Bitcoin's 20% price rally in April 2026, from $66,000 to $79,000, was fueled almost exclusively by demand for perpetual futures, with spot market buying actually declining during the move. Researchers warn the imbalance closely resembles the onset of the 2022 bear market, casting serious doubt on the sustainability of the rally.
Futures Demand Surges While Spot Demand Shrinks
Cryptoquant's 'apparent demand' metric, which captures the 30-day change in estimated on-chain spot buying, remained negative throughout April's price advance. In contrast, perpetual futures open interest and funding rates rose sharply, indicating that speculative traders were leveraging up rather than directly purchasing coins. The analysts describe the widening gap between rising futures activity and shrinking spot demand as one of the clearest on-chain signals that price gains are speculative in nature.
"When spot demand declines while prices rise, the market's marginal buyers are positioned in derivatives, not actual Bitcoin," the report states. The researchers emphasize that at every stage of the April rally, perpetual futures demand outpaced spot, and spot demand never caught up—it actively contracted.
Bull Score Drops Below Neutral, Enters 'Increasingly Bearish' Territory
The Cryptoquant Bull Score Index, a composite indicator (0–100) monitoring multiple on-chain and market metrics, fell from 50 to 40 during April, dropping back into bearish territory after briefly touching neutral mid-month. The index's decline came despite Bitcoin's 20% price gain over the period. Cryptoquant describes a score of 40 as 'increasingly bearish,' a level historically associated with sustained price weakness.
Values above 50 reflect bullish conditions; below 50 reflect bearish conditions. The current 40 reading aligns with the early stages of the 2022 market downturn.
Historical Parallel: Mirroring the Start of the 2022 Bear Market
Cryptoquant researchers draw a direct historical parallel: the same demand pattern appeared during the onset of the 2022 bear market, when perpetual futures demand rose in isolation while visible spot demand continued to shrink. That condition preceded a multi-month price decline. The firm applies its on-chain demand decomposition consistently across cycles and identifies this pattern as a reliable early indicator of price instability.
"Rallies with this structure tend to be self-limiting," the analysts note. "Without fresh spot demand to absorb the elevated prices, the unwinding of futures positions becomes the primary driver of the next decline."
Current Price Action and Geopolitical Factors
Bitcoin has already started retreating from the April high, sliding from $79,000 to around $75,000 before recovering to near $78,000 on May 2. This aligns with how futures-driven rallies historically dissipate once speculative positions are liquidated. Meanwhile, geopolitical events—including the US-Iran conflict and President Trump's subsequent declaration that the conflict had ended—provided brief volatility, but on-chain fundamentals did not improve.
Additionally, the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) warned that digital asset payments related to transit through the Strait of Hormuz could face sanctions risk, underscoring the increasing intersection of geopolitics and cryptocurrency markets.
Outlook: Without Spot Demand Reversal, $79K Resistance Unlikely to Hold
Cryptoquant analysts conclude that unless apparent demand flips from negative to positive, any rally back toward the $79,000 local top will lack the on-chain support necessary for a sustainable breakout. While the data does not guarantee a repeat of the 2022 prolonged downturn, the current demand structure matches the historical profile of price instability, not accumulation. Traders should watch for a recovery in spot buying volumes as a prerequisite for a genuine uptrend.