CryptoQuant’s latest report argues that bitcoin’s roughly 20% rally in April 2026, from $66,000 to $79,000, was driven almost entirely by perpetual futures demand, while onchain spot buying kept contracting throughout the move. In the firm’s view, that makes the advance look more speculative than structural.
Futures Led the Move, Spot Demand Did Not
Using its “apparent demand” framework, which tracks the 30-day change in estimated onchain spot buying activity, CryptoQuant found that spot demand remained negative for the entire rally. At the same time, demand in perpetual futures expanded as leveraged traders pushed prices higher. Analysts say this divergence matters because a rising market without spot participation usually means the marginal buyer is active in derivatives rather than accumulating actual bitcoin.
CryptoQuant stressed that this was not a case of spot buyers simply lagging and later catching up. In each phase of the April advance, perpetual futures demand increased while spot demand continued to shrink. That kind of structure tends to make rallies fragile, because elevated prices are not being absorbed by fresh spot inflows. If leveraged positioning starts to unwind, futures selling can quickly become the main force behind the next decline.
Parallels With the Start of the 2022 Bear Market
The firm drew a direct comparison to the onset of the 2022 bear market, when perpetual futures demand also expanded in isolation while spot demand stayed weak. That pattern was followed by a multi-month downturn. CryptoQuant says its onchain demand decomposition has identified this setup across cycles as an early sign of price fragility rather than a signal of healthy accumulation.
Market action since the April peak appears consistent with that warning. After reaching $79,000, bitcoin pulled back to around $75,000, then rebounded to trade above $78,000 while attempting another push toward the $80,000 level. According to CryptoQuant, any return toward the local high may struggle to produce a lasting breakout unless apparent demand turns positive again.
Bull Score Slipped Back Into Bearish Territory
Another sign of weakening conditions came from CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index. The indicator briefly touched 50 in mid-April, which marks neutral territory, but fell to 40 by the end of the month despite bitcoin’s sharp price gain. The index is built from multiple onchain and market indicators on a 0-to-100 scale. Readings above 50 indicate bullish conditions, while levels below 50 point to bearish ones. A score of 40, the firm said, suggests the market is becoming bearish again.
CryptoQuant also noted that recent bitcoin price action has unfolded alongside geopolitical tensions, including developments related to the U.S. and Iran, which may have influenced broader risk sentiment. Still, the report’s central conclusion is unchanged: without a recovery in spot demand, bitcoin’s latest rally lacks the onchain support typically associated with durable upside. The firm did not say a repeat of 2022 is certain, but it made clear that the current demand profile looks more like a vulnerable rebound than a solid accumulation phase.