Bitcoin’s sharp advance in April is facing renewed scrutiny after Cryptoquant researchers argued that the move was driven almost entirely by derivatives speculation rather than real spot accumulation. In the firm’s latest analysis, Bitcoin climbed from $66,000 to $79,000 during the month, a gain of roughly 20%, but the underlying demand structure did not show the kind of spot buying that typically supports a durable breakout.
According to Cryptoquant, the metric it uses to track apparent Bitcoin demand—based on the 30-day change in estimated on-chain spot purchases—remained negative throughout the rally. At the same time, demand for perpetual futures increased, suggesting that marginal buyers were entering the market through leveraged instruments instead of purchasing actual BTC in the spot market. That divergence is central to the firm’s warning: prices moved higher, but the move was not backed by expanding spot demand.
A Rally Built on Futures, Not Spot Buying
Cryptoquant described the gap between rising futures activity and shrinking spot demand as one of the clearest signs that the April rally was speculative in nature. In practical terms, that means the market was being pushed higher by traders taking leveraged positions rather than by investors accumulating coins outright. When spot demand weakens while price rises, the price structure becomes more fragile because it relies on positioning rather than broad-based buying.
The researchers emphasized that this was not a case in which spot buyers simply lagged the move and later caught up. Their breakdown of demand conditions showed that throughout each stage of the April rally, perpetual futures demand increased while apparent spot demand stayed negative. In other words, the market did not display evidence of healthy follow-through from spot participants as the price rose toward the local high.
This distinction matters because futures-led rallies can unwind quickly. Without fresh spot inflows to absorb higher prices, the eventual reduction of leveraged positions can become the dominant force behind the next leg down. That makes the sustainability of the move more questionable, especially when resistance levels remain close overhead.
Why Cryptoquant Sees a Parallel With 2022
The most striking part of the report is Cryptoquant’s historical comparison. The firm said the current demand configuration resembles the pattern seen at the start of the 2022 bear market, when perpetual futures demand rose in isolation while visible spot demand continued to contract. That earlier setup preceded a prolonged multi-month price decline, leading Cryptoquant to classify this type of demand split as an early warning sign of instability rather than a sign of accumulation.
To be clear, the researchers did not say that a full repeat of 2022 is guaranteed. Instead, they argued that the present market structure fits a profile historically associated with weaker support and greater downside risk. Their point is that when derivative activity leads and spot participation fails to confirm the move, breakouts become harder to sustain and pullbacks can accelerate once leverage begins to unwind.
The warning comes at a time when Bitcoin has already shown some hesitation near the top of the recent range. After peaking at $79,000, BTC pulled back to around $75,000, a move that Cryptoquant said aligns with how futures-driven rallies have often behaved in the past after speculative pressure starts to fade. The asset later traded back above $78,000, but another push through the psychologically important $80,000 area had not yet been secured.
Bull Score Fell Even as Price Rose
Another data point highlighted in the report is Cryptoquant’s Bull Score Index, a composite indicator built from multiple on-chain and market signals and measured on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings above 50 are generally associated with bullish conditions, while readings below 50 reflect bearish conditions. During April, the index fell from 50 to 40, slipping back below the neutral threshold even as Bitcoin posted a sizable monthly gain.
The index briefly touched 50 in the middle of the month, but by the end of April it had retreated to 40. Cryptoquant characterized that reading as increasingly bearish, noting that similar conditions have historically been linked to persistent price weakness rather than sustained upside momentum. The decline in the Bull Score during a period of rising prices strengthens the firm’s broader case that the rally was not supported by improving fundamentals.
That divergence between price action and internal market health is often what concerns analysts most. In many stronger uptrends, price gains are accompanied by increasing spot demand, improved on-chain participation, and stronger composite indicators. Here, Cryptoquant argues the opposite occurred: Bitcoin rose, but the demand profile deteriorated. That weakens confidence in the durability of the move.
Macro and Geopolitical Noise Added to Market Moves
The report also noted that Bitcoin’s recent behavior unfolded against a backdrop of geopolitical tension, including developments involving the United States and Iran. Broader risk sentiment appeared to influence both equities and crypto, and comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that the conflict had ended reportedly gave another lift to Bitcoin alongside stocks. Even so, Cryptoquant’s main conclusion is that short-term headlines do not replace the need for stronger spot demand if the market is to establish a sustainable breakout.
In that sense, the firm is drawing a line between price catalysts and structural support. External events may help fuel momentum or trigger short bursts of buying, but lasting advances usually require deeper confirmation from investor demand in the spot market. Without that, rallies can remain vulnerable to reversal.
What the Data Suggests for the Next Move
Cryptoquant ultimately argued that any renewed attempt to reclaim or exceed the local high near $79,000 may lack sufficient on-chain support unless apparent demand turns positive again. As long as spot demand remains in negative territory, the firm sees the current setup as one more closely aligned with fragility than with steady accumulation.
For market participants, the implication is not necessarily that a major collapse is imminent, but that caution is warranted when price gains are being driven primarily by leverage. The report suggests the key variable to monitor is whether spot demand begins to recover and validate the rally. If it does not, the market could remain exposed to sharp swings tied to futures positioning and liquidation dynamics.
Cryptoquant’s message is therefore less about making a deterministic forecast and more about identifying the nature of the current rally. By its reading, Bitcoin’s April surge did not show the hallmarks of a broad-based, fundamentally supported advance. Instead, it reflected a speculative derivatives-led structure that has, in previous cycles, coincided with unstable prices and a higher risk of downside follow-through.