CryptoQuant says bitcoin’s April 2026 climb from $66,000 to $79,000 was built almost entirely on perpetual futures demand, while onchain spot buying weakened through the whole move. In practical terms, the marginal buyer was coming from derivatives traders using leverage, not from fresh spot accumulation.
Perpetual futures expanded as spot demand stayed negative
According to the firm’s latest report, its “apparent demand” metric, which measures the 30-day change in estimated onchain spot buying activity, remained in negative territory throughout April’s rally. Over the same period, perpetual futures demand kept rising. CryptoQuant argues that this combination — higher prices paired with shrinking spot demand — is a clear sign that the advance was speculative.
The researchers also broke the rally into phases and said the pattern did not change during the month. Each stage showed stronger perpetual futures demand while spot apparent demand kept contracting. The report stresses that this was not a case of spot buyers arriving late. Spot demand was actively deteriorating as futures activity increased.
CryptoQuant draws a direct comparison to early 2022
CryptoQuant links the current setup to the opening phase of the 2022 bear market. In that period, perpetual futures demand expanded on its own while spot apparent demand stayed in contraction, and that structure was followed by a multi-month decline. The firm says this type of demand decomposition has been a reliable signal of price fragility across market cycles.
Its view is straightforward: if elevated prices are not being absorbed by new spot demand, the next move lower can be driven by the unwinding of leveraged positions. That makes futures-led rallies prone to reversal once speculative positioning starts to fade.
Pullback from the peak and a weaker Bull Score
Bitcoin has already pulled back after touching $79,000 in April. The price dropped to $75,000 after the peak, then traded back above $78,000 on Saturday, May 2, after another attempt to approach $80,000.
CryptoQuant also said its Bull Score Index fell from 50 to 40 during April. The index briefly reached 50, which the firm treats as neutral, in mid-April before slipping back to 40 by month-end. On CryptoQuant’s 0 to 100 scale, readings above 50 are bullish and readings below 50 are bearish. A score of 40 is described as conditions “getting bearish,” even though bitcoin gained about 20% over the month.
The report stops short of saying the market will repeat the full 2022 downturn. Still, CryptoQuant’s conclusion is clear: unless apparent demand turns positive again, any renewed push toward the $79,000 area would lack the onchain support needed for a durable breakout.