ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), one of China’s leading domestic memory chip makers, is scheduled to begin trading on Shanghai Stock Exchange’s STAR Market next Monday, July 27, with an initial market capitalization of about RMB 580 billion, according to BlockBeats. The company is also seen as a contender to become the world’s third-largest DRAM supplier.
Analysts and institutions are laying out a broad valuation range
Ahead of the listing, forecasts for CXMT’s post-IPO valuation have spread across a wide band.
UBS said in its latest research note that the DRAM market is likely to remain in shortage until at least the second quarter of 2028. That outlook has become a central support for expectations that CXMT could command a market value of RMB 1 trillion or more after going public.
Zhang Xiaorong, dean of the DeepTech Research Institute, said that if CXMT posts net profit of around RMB 100 billion this year and trades at a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio of 20 to 25 times, the company would most likely be able to challenge the trillion-yuan mark after listing.
CNBC technology analyst Daniel Haylor said CXMT is in a favorable position, especially if it continues to benefit from major shortages in the mobile memory market. He added that the world’s three largest memory makers are shifting substantial capacity toward higher-margin HBM products, which would tighten supply in general-purpose DRAM even more. In that setup, CXMT, as China’s DRAM leader, could see meaningful growth and a valuation rerating.
RMB 2 trillion to RMB 3 trillion has emerged as the most common target zone
Veteran investment banker Wang Jiyue said CXMT could be valued at RMB 2 trillion to RMB 3 trillion after listing, using SK Hynix as the benchmark. The figures cited in the report put Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix at trailing twelve-month PE ratios of 21.7x and 21.3x, respectively.
CITIC Securities said in a research note that the supply-demand imbalance in memory may persist until at least 2027, while price increases could run through all of 2026. That industry-cycle view has strengthened optimistic expectations for a post-listing valuation in the RMB 2 trillion to RMB 3 trillion range.
Several mainland Chinese brokerages offered similar estimates. Their case rests on long-term demand for DRAM and HBM driven by AI computing, CXMT’s role as China’s only domestic DRAM production platform, backing from the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, and the broader import-substitution theme. Some of those calculations put a reasonable opening valuation range at RMB 2 trillion to RMB 2.5 trillion.
More bullish calls point above RMB 3 trillion, with an extreme case at RMB 5 trillion
Reuters presented a more aggressive view, saying CXMT’s market capitalization could very likely exceed RMB 3 trillion, or about $443 billion. Under an AI upcycle and a push for domestic technology self-reliance, that figure could even reach RMB 5 trillion.
Financial Times analysts also projected that CXMT’s valuation could climb as high as RMB 3 trillion. Their view is tied to AI-led demand growth in memory chips and the company’s rapidly expanding share of the global DRAM market. The report said international analysts have taken a constructive view of the company’s growth narrative and structural opportunity.
Some more bullish institutions and equity analysts covering electronics said CXMT’s market value could break above RMB 3 trillion on a phase basis and may even reach RMB 4 trillion under strong industry conditions and scarcity premiums for semiconductor names in the A-share market. In an extreme scenario, they said the number could go higher. That view is based on profit expectations for 2026 and a growth-stock valuation framework built around international peers.
Long-term scenario work points to RMB 1.6 trillion to RMB 2.2 trillion
Third-party market research estimates offered a separate medium- to long-term framework. Under the assumption that AI infrastructure brings sustained tailwinds, and that CXMT posts revenue close to or above RMB 100 billion in 2026 and 2027 with net profit of RMB 10 billion to RMB 15 billion, the secondary market could assign a monopoly-style leader premium if the company trades at 50x to 100x earnings during a strong cycle.
Under that scenario, CXMT’s long-term steady-state market capitalization would most likely fall in the RMB 1.6 trillion to RMB 2.2 trillion range.