Crypto analyst Darkfost said on X that Bitcoin exchange inflow data from long-term holders, or LTHs, shows a clear contrast between recent market phases. During the March 2024 market top, LTHs were at their most active in the bull cycle, with average daily exchange inflows at one point running more than five times above the annual average.
By comparison, LTH behavior was relatively subdued during the 2025 top. Activity then picked up sharply after the bear market began, and the annual average of daily BTC exchange inflows rose from about 600 BTC to roughly 1,000 BTC. Darkfost added that as the market approached the bear market bottom, inflows on some trading days moved far above the annual average, matching a rise in realized losses among buyers who entered at higher levels.
He said LTH-related activity is now gradually easing, while exchange inflows remain well below the annual average. In his view, holder behavior is shifting and the market is becoming more rational.
Crypto analyst Darkfost said on X that Bitcoin exchange inflow data tied to long-term holders, or LTHs, points to a sharp difference between the March 2024 market top and the 2025 top.
According to Darkfost, LTHs were most active during the bull market phase around the March 2024 peak, when average daily BTC inflows to exchanges briefly climbed to more than five times the annual average.
He said LTH activity was much calmer during the 2025 top. After the bear market started, however, that activity increased noticeably, and the annual average for daily BTC exchange inflows rose from about 600 BTC to around 1,000 BTC.
Darkfost also said that as the market moved closer to the bear market bottom, inflows on some trading days came in far above the annual average. He said that pattern was consistent with an increase in realized losses among investors who had bought at higher prices.
At present, Darkfost said, LTH-related activity is gradually cooling down. Exchange inflows are still clearly below the annual average, while holder behavior is changing and the market is moving toward a more rational state.
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