On-chain analyst Darkfost said the share of loss-making UTXOs in the Bitcoin market is still expanding, with the loss-to-profit UTXO ratio rising into what he described as an extreme range. According to the analyst, this level has historically appeared only during periods of deep bear-market stress.
Darkfost said the metric measures market sentiment by comparing the number of UTXOs in loss with those in profit, rather than relying on Bitcoin’s absolute price level. That makes the indicator less vulnerable to price distortion and gives it stronger historical consistency, in his view.
The current reading points to notable unrealized loss pressure among holders, which Darkfost said may offer some accumulation value from a longer-term perspective. At the same time, he warned that if sentiment shifts and the number of profitable UTXOs rises quickly, pushing the ratio sharply higher, that could mark a local top in the market.
According to ChainCatcher, on-chain analyst Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) said the share of loss-making UTXOs in the Bitcoin market continues to expand, and the loss-to-profit UTXO ratio has moved into an extreme zone. He said this level has historically been seen only during periods of deep stress in bear markets.
Darkfost said the indicator gauges market sentiment by tracking the ratio between loss-making and profit-making UTXOs. In his view, the metric is not distorted by Bitcoin’s absolute price level and has shown strong historical consistency.
The current reading suggests holders are under significant loss pressure, which Darkfost said may present some accumulation value from a long-term perspective. He also warned that if market sentiment turns and the number of profitable UTXOs climbs quickly, driving the ratio sharply higher, that could become a signal of a local top.
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