Claims that Jane Street has been systematically hitting bitcoin at 10 a.m. ET to force prices lower gathered momentum on X this week, but the evidence cited so far remains thin. The theory says the trading firm has been dumping BTC after the U.S. cash open and then using the lower price to accumulate spot bitcoin ETF exposure more cheaply. Market data referenced in the report, along with the mechanics of an ETF authorized participant, do not clearly support that narrative.
Viral posts tied the alleged pattern to IBIT exposure
The accusation spread through dozens of posts arguing that bitcoin had been falling with unusual regularity in the morning after the New York market open since late 2025. Some retail traders went much farther, blaming Jane Street for a slide from $125,000 to $62,000 over recent months.
One widely shared post from the X account Whale Factor in December said BTC had been dropping roughly 2% to 3% within minutes of the U.S. cash open on almost every trading day since early November. The post pointed to Jane Street’s position in BlackRock’s IBIT as the likely explanation, framing the move as a deliberate liquidity sweep designed to pick up spot ETF shares at a discount. Later 13-F filings showed Jane Street held about $790 million of IBIT shares in the fourth quarter of 2025. Glassnode co-founders Jan Happel and Yann Allemann also highlighted similar trading behavior through their shared X account, Negentropic, and wrote on Wednesday that the public lawsuit against Jane Street appeared to coincide with the disappearance of the 10 a.m. BTC slam.
Lawsuit and prior regulatory action intensified suspicion
The story gained more traction after TerraForm Labs’ bankruptcy operator sued Jane Street, alleging insider trading that accelerated Terra’s collapse in 2022. At the same time, market watchers noted that the much-discussed 10 a.m. volatility seemed to fade. On Wednesday, bitcoin rose more than 6% to nearly $70,000.
Jane Street’s history in other markets added to the suspicion. The report noted that in June last year, India’s SEBI barred the firm from local markets and froze $566 million in alleged illegal gains, citing a “morning pump, afternoon dump” strategy tied to the Bank Nifty index. SEBI said the conduct occurred across 18 derivatives expiry days between January 2023 and March 2025. That background made the bitcoin allegations easier for many traders to believe.
Current evidence still falls short
Even so, the report said the idea that Jane Street was pushing down BTC to buy IBIT cheaply runs into problems when checked against tracked market data and the basic logic of ETF authorized participant activity. Data followed by crypto economist Alex Kruger did not confirm the supposed 10 a.m. dump pattern. The discussion on X may be loud, but direct proof that Jane Street was systematically suppressing bitcoin prices has not been established in the material cited.
CoinDesk said it contacted Jane Street for comment on the allegations and had not received a response as of European morning hours.