Delphi Digital’s July 12 report, titled How Far Can Saylor Stretch It, argues that Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation model is entering a tougher phase. The firm says the premium that once made equity issuance highly effective is fading, while the company’s newer funding tool, STRC, keeps the purchase machine running at the cost of larger ongoing obligations.
Equity issuance no longer offers the same leverage
For years, Strategy benefited from a strong premium in MSTR shares versus the value of the Bitcoin on its balance sheet. That gap allowed the company to issue new shares and buy more Bitcoin while increasing BTC exposure on a per-share basis. Delphi Digital says this advantage is now much weaker. Its EV-based mNAV premium has fallen to about 1.24x, leaving common-stock issuance close to break-even in terms of efficiency.
That changes the economics of the model. Strategy can still raise money, but the clean and powerful path that defined its earlier Bitcoin purchases is no longer as effective.
STRC opens a new buyer base with 11.5% annual dividends
With common equity becoming less attractive and earlier convertible debt still leaving $8.2 billion in principal repayment pressure, the company has shifted toward STRC. Delphi Digital says the product is aimed at yield-focused buyers rather than investors seeking upside in MSTR shares. STRC offers an 11.5% annual dividend paid monthly.
That gives Strategy a way to keep directing fresh capital into Bitcoin without adding the same kind of maturity pressure tied to convertibles. The trade-off is plain: the structure brings in money today by committing the company to dividend payments in the future.
A flat Bitcoin market could turn the structure into a compounding burden
Delphi Digital’s main warning is that STRC works best if Bitcoin keeps rising and MSTR’s valuation premium holds up. In that case, the structure can still absorb its own costs. If Bitcoin trades sideways, the obligations keep building while the effectiveness of issuing common stock to fund those dividends gets worse.
The key stress test is not whether Strategy can keep raising capital for a while. It is whether Bitcoin purchases funded through STRC can outpace the rate of common-share issuance needed to service preferred dividends. If that balance breaks, the model becomes far harder to sustain.
Debt maturities and issuance limits set hard boundaries
Delphi also points to two constraints. On timing, convertible debt pressure starts to show in September 2027. Strategy currently holds $2.25 billion in cash, enough to handle roughly $1 billion of put exposure due that month, but that only buys time ahead of a much larger 2028 debt wall.
On capacity, STRC has an authorized issuance cap of $28.3 billion. Until that ceiling is reached, Strategy can keep buying BTC and offset some of the dilution linked to dividends. If the limit is hit and cannot be extended, the company’s buy-and-hedge mechanism may have to slow or stop, while the dividend obligations remain in place.