This Friday, the crypto derivatives exchange Deribit is bracing for one of November's largest options expirations, involving roughly 150,000 Bitcoin (notional value of $13.19 billion) and substantial Ethereum positions. With Bitcoin spot trading at $87,278 and Ethereum at $2,936—both significantly below their respective max pain levels—the short-term market direction hangs in the balance.
Bitcoin Options: Bullish Bias Persists Despite Spot Weakness
According to Deribit data, the expiring Bitcoin options carry a notional value of approximately $13.19 billion, with the max pain level pinned at $101,000—well above the current spot price. The put/call ratio stands at 0.61, indicating a market still tilted toward call options despite recent price softness.
Open interest is heavily concentrated in call strikes between $100,000 and $140,000 for the December 2025 expiry. Specifically, the $100,000 and $112,000 strikes each hold over 15,000 BTC in open interest. Puts are clustered lower, with the heaviest action at $85,000, reflecting a relative lack of bearish conviction. In 24-hour volume rankings, short-dated $85,000 puts and $100,000 calls dominate trading, suggesting traders are hedging for near-term volatility while maintaining long-term upside bets.
The max pain curve has been rising, peaking just above $100,000, consistent with traders' preference for high-strike long-dated options. This indicates that despite the spot drawdown, options flows still reflect optimism toward higher prices.
Ethereum Options: Even Stronger Call Bias
Ethereum's options expiry carries a notional value of $1.66 billion, with a max pain level of $3,400—about 15.8% above the current spot price of $2,936. The put/call ratio of 0.50 reveals an even stronger call bias than Bitcoin.
Open interest is heaviest at high-value call strikes, led by the $6,000, $4,000, and $5,000 strikes, each with over 50,000 ETH in open interest. Puts are concentrated around $2,600 and $3,000, but remain significantly lighter. In 24-hour volume, calls and puts show balanced activity with calls slightly ahead; the most active trades are short-dated premiums near $2,650 and $3,000, indicating positioning for a potential spot recovery or volatility spike.
Ethereum's total options open interest has grown steadily throughout the year, even during market cooling periods, hinting at persistent institutional involvement and a maturing derivatives market.
Market Outlook
The combination of high notional expiries, call-heavy open interest, and max pain levels well above spot suggests that Friday's event may exert short-term pressure on prices while leaving the long-term bullish structure intact. Whether spot drifts toward max pain levels or traders roll positions into the next cycle, the expiration is primed to set the tone for the week's closing sessions.
Investors should watch key support levels, particularly Bitcoin's ability to hold $85,000 and Ethereum's potential to reclaim $3,000, as these levels will likely determine the market's near-term trajectory.