As 2025 winds down, Deribit—now a subsidiary of Coinbase—is preparing for its largest options expiry on record, with more than half of its total open interest rolling off on December 26. The event has become the defining market moment of the holiday week, drawing intense focus from institutional traders and retail participants alike.
Record-Breaking Options Expiry
Deribit Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Pequignot said the scale of the expiry reflects how far the market has evolved. “With a record-shattering $28.5 billion in notional value set to expire on December 26, this event represents more than 50% of the total open interest (OI) in options at Deribit,” he noted, calling it the culmination of a year shaped by institutional participation rather than speculative excess.
The year-end expiry includes roughly $24.3 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options and about $4 billion in Ethereum (ETH) contracts—nearly double last year’s December expiry. Yet volatility remains muted, Pequignot emphasized that with Bitcoin’s DVOL Index hovering near 45, it is signaling a relatively controlled market despite thinning holiday liquidity.
Price Action and Key Levels
Bitcoin traded at $87,981 as of 3:30 p.m. EST on Monday, Dec. 22, positioning the spot price well below the $96,000 “max pain” level for the expiry. The put-to-call ratio sits at 0.37, while a sizable $1.2 billion open interest cluster at the $85,000 strike could act as a short-term price magnet. Pequignot explained that the options skew has softened after late November and early December strength.
“The market has repriced the skew lower after a rally in late November and early December. 1-week and 1-month Put-Call skews remain in positive territory above 3%, down from 8-9% a few weeks ago,” Pequignot said. “This skew highlights a divergence: while the mid-term bias is call-heavy, targeting $100k-$125k via calls (spreads), the immediate demand for protective puts is expensive.”
Call-side positioning suggests heavy resistance near $100,000 to $102,000, where large option concentrations could cap any late-season rally unless volume meaningfully accelerates.
Market Dynamics and Positioning
Traders have been rolling defensive positions forward, shifting December downside puts into January structures. According to Pequignot, this reflects a market clearing risk ahead of key January catalysts, including the Federal Reserve’s late-January policy decision and an MSCI ruling tied to digital asset treasury (DAT) exposure. There are 36 days until the next Fed meeting and an 80% probability the central bank will not change the federal funds rate, according to CME’s Fedwatch tool.
By Friday, the Boxing Day expiry is expected to reset positioning across the board. Social media platform X has seen heightened chatter, with one user posting: “Something big will happen on Friday this week. If you have any money in crypto, you SHOULD NOT ignore this.” Whether the expiry delivers fireworks or a quieter reset, the sheer scale points to how derivatives now sit at the heart of crypto price discovery, with institutional positioning calling the shots as markets head into 2026.