On December 26, 2025, Deribit—now a subsidiary of Coinbase—will host the largest options expiry in crypto history, with $28.5 billion in notional value set to expire. This Boxing Day event accounts for over 50% of the exchange's total open interest, making it the defining market event of the holiday week.
Record Scale Driven by Institutional Participation
Jean-David Pequignot, Deribit’s Chief Commercial Officer, noted the milestone: “A record-shattering $28.5 billion in notional value expiring on December 26 represents more than 50% of total open interest in options on Deribit.” The expiry includes roughly $24.3 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options and $4 billion in Ethereum (ETH) contracts—nearly double last year’s December expiry. Pequignot emphasized that this surge reflects a market increasingly shaped by institutional flows rather than speculative excess.
Despite the massive notional, volatility remains subdued. The Bitcoin DVOL index hovers near 45, signaling controlled market conditions as holiday liquidity thins. At 3:30 p.m. EST on Dec. 22, Bitcoin traded at $87,981, well below the $96,000 max pain level—the strike price where the largest number of options expire worthless.
Max Pain, Skew, and Resistance Levels
The put-to-call ratio stands at 0.37, indicating a bullish tilt in options positioning. A substantial $1.2 billion open interest cluster at the $85,000 strike could act as a short-term price magnet. Pequignot explained that the options skew has softened after a rally in late November and early December: “1-week and 1-month put-call skews remain in positive territory above 3%, down from 8-9% a few weeks ago.”
This skew highlights a divergence: medium-term positioning is call-heavy with targets of $100,000 to $125,000 (via call spreads), while near-term protective puts remain expensive. On the call side, heavy resistance is expected near $100,000 to $102,000, where large option concentrations could cap any late-year rally unless volume picks up significantly.
Rolling Defensive Positions and January Catalysts
Traders have been rolling December downside puts into January structures, signaling a market clearing risk ahead of key events in January. These include the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Jan. 28 (with an 80% probability of no rate change per CME FedWatch) and an MSCI ruling on digital asset treasury (DAT) exposure. Pequignot highlighted that this proactive hedging “reflects a market preparing for macro and index-driven catalysts.”
On social media platform X, a user warned: “Something big will happen on Friday this week. If you have any money in crypto, you SHOULD NOT ignore this.” Whether the expiry delivers fireworks or a quiet reset, the sheer scale underscores how derivatives now dominate crypto price discovery, with institutional positioning calling the shots as markets head into 2026.