Deribit is bracing for a massive Friday expiry as 150,000 Bitcoin options (notional value $13.19 billion) and Ethereum options worth $1.66 billion approach their settlement at 8:00 UTC. With Bitcoin trading around $87,278 and Ether at $2,936, both assets remain well below their respective max pain levels—BTC at $101,000 and ETH at $3,400. The wide gap signals that option sellers may exert gravitational force to push prices toward these pain points, creating short-term headwinds for the bulls.
BTC Options: Call-Heavy Positioning Despite Recent Softness
The put/call ratio for Bitcoin sits at 0.61, confirming a market that still favors calls even after the recent pullback. Open interest is concentrated in the $100,000–$140,000 call strikes for December 2025 expiration, with the $100,000 and $112,000 levels each holding over 15,000 BTC in open interest. In contrast, the heaviest put activity is clustered at $85,000, far below the current spot price.
Over the past 24 hours, trading volume has been dominated by short-dated $85,000 puts and $100,000 calls. This pattern suggests traders are hedging against downside volatility but unwilling to abandon the lingering bullish narrative embedded in the high-strike, long-dated options. The max pain curve has been rising over time and peaked just above $100,000, aligning with the market’s long-dated optimism.
Ether Options: Stronger Bullish Tilt
Ethereum’s options slate reveals an even more pronounced call bias, with a put/call ratio of 0.50. The largest open interest resides in call strikes at $6,000, $4,000, and $5,000, each exceeding 50,000 ETH. Put open interest clusters around $2,600 and $3,000 but remains lighter in comparison.
In the 24-hour volume rankings, calls hold a slight edge over puts, with the most actively traded contracts being shorter-dated at strikes near $2,650 and $3,000. This indicates that traders are positioning for a potential spot recovery or a volatility surge ahead of Friday’s expiry. Ethereum’s overall open interest has been steadily growing throughout the year, even during market cooldowns, hinting at deepening institutional involvement.
Market Outlook: Near-Term Pressure, Long-Term Structure Intact
The combination of large notional expiries, call-heavy open interest, and max pain levels well above current spot suggests that Friday’s event could exert short-term downward pressure as option sellers seek to minimize losses. However, the persistent accumulation of long-dated call strikes at elevated levels indicates that the market’s bullish conviction remains robust beyond the immediate horizon.
Key levels to watch include Bitcoin’s support at $85,000–$87,000 and Ethereum’s zone around $2,900–$3,000. A move toward max pain could trigger stop-loss cascades and increase volatility, but a resilient bounce would reinforce the bullish thesis. Regardless of the direction, this expiry is set to define the tone for the final trading sessions of November.
Traders should also note that while the focus is on Friday, the December 2025 expiry with its concentration of high-strike calls remains the dominant force in the options market. The outcome of this week’s settlement will likely influence how positions are rolled into the next cycle.