Bitcoin's slide is accelerating, with the price fast approaching the $60,000 threshold. Record ETF outflows have intensified selling pressure, and analysts widely view this level as a make-or-break support. A decisive breach could unleash a far uglier selloff.
Institutional Cost Basis Under Pressure
Jean-David Péquignot, chief commercial officer at Deribit, warned that a large tranche of institutional money — including ETF buyers, large holders, and short-term speculators — accumulated BTC between $60,000 and $67,000 over the past year. With the spot price now trading within that range, these investors are at or near break-even. If the price slides further, unrealized losses will mount, and the opportunity cost of holding crypto becomes stark when AI stocks and other traditional sectors are surging. "As price undercuts their cost basis, the resulting unrealized losses may incentivize rushed selling, especially as the opportunity cost of holding BTC rises against a surging AI equity sector," Péquignot said. Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy (MSTR), also blamed capital rotation for the recent BTC losses.
Derivatives Time Bomb
On Deribit, notional open interest for $60,000 strike put options exceeds $1.2 billion. Investors bought these as hedges against a protracted downtrend, but market makers — who are short gamma — face forced spot or futures sales as BTC nears the strike. This hedging flow could accelerate a orderly decline into chaos. Péquignot also noted that leveraged longs remain elevated in the system. "With leverage still not fully flushed from the system, a break of $60K could rapidly worsen collateral metrics, triggering a cascading wave of automated long liquidations," he said. Billions of dollars in leveraged bullish positions have already been wiped out this week.