Kevin Warsh cleared a Senate Banking Committee vote on April 29 and is expected to chair his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting June 16-17, 2026, as futures and prediction markets put the odds of a rate hold above 93%.
Powell's Final Act, Warsh Takes Over
Jerome Powell hosted his final FOMC meeting as chairman on the same day Warsh was cleared. His term as Fed chair expires May 15, 2026. The committee approved Warsh's nomination in a 13-11 party-line vote, sending his confirmation to the full Senate for a final vote expected in early May. Powell stepped down as chair but retains the option to remain on the Board of Governors through 2028. Whether he stays alongside Warsh on the board is an open question, one that prediction market participants on Kalshi have flagged as a potential influence on June's rate decision.
Markets Unanimously Bet on No Rate Cut in June
The CME Fedwatch Tool puts the probability of no change at the June 17 meeting at 93.3%. Futures traders assign a 6.7% chance to a cut that would drop the range to 325-350 basis points. The probability of a rate hike sits at 0.0%. The chance of a cut has ticked up slightly from 4.0% a month ago, but the consensus remains firmly in favor of a pause.
On Polymarket, the Fed Decision in June event has generated roughly $16.48 million in total trading volume as of May 3, 2026. The “No change” outcome holds a 96% probability, priced at 96 cents. A 25 basis point decrease sits at 3.6%, a 25 basis point increase at 1.1%, and both larger moves carry less than 1%. Participants point to the March 2026 CPI reading of 3.3% and a stable labor market as the main drivers behind the hold consensus.
Kalshi traders show similar conviction. The “Fed maintains rate” contract on that platform is priced at 95 cents, reflecting a 95% probability of no change. The odds of a 25 basis point cut sit at 6%, and a cut larger than 25 basis points carries a 2% probability. A separate contract tracking whether the fed funds rate stays above 3.25% commands a 98% confidence level. Total betting volume on Kalshi has reached $3,461,005. The price history shows sharp swings between January and March, when “maintain” and “cut” odds crossed each other frequently. Since April, the hold expectation has trended steadily higher.
Warsh's 'Regime Change' Approach vs. Inflation Reality
Warsh has signaled what he calls a “regime change” approach. He has pointed to artificial intelligence (AI)-driven productivity gains as a buffer against inflation and leaned toward rate cuts in his public remarks. But with inflation holding above 3% and geopolitical tensions pushing on energy prices, building consensus among the other 11 voting members will be his first real test. Although Warsh stands as U.S. President Donald Trump's preferred candidate, and some speculate he could alter the prevailing direction, markets remain unconvinced that a June Federal Funds Rate (FFR) cut is on the table. The Kalshi market closes at 1:59 PM EDT on June 17, just before the official announcement. By then, Warsh will have chaired his first policy meeting and delivered his first rate decision as Fed chairman. Whether he breaks from the current 350-375 basis point range in June or holds Powell's line, traders across both platforms have already placed their bets.