Haseeb Qureshi, a partner at Dragonfly Capital, poured cold water on the crypto industry's hype around agentic payments, arguing that the technology is still far from ready for prime time. In a detailed commentary, he described most current projects as experimental and warned that overhyping deployment timelines could damage the sector's credibility.
Computer Mouse Parallel and Current Flaws
Qureshi drew a parallel between the nascent stage of agentic payments and the early days of the computer mouse—a breakthrough that took decades to go mainstream. He singled out OpenClaw as an example: “unreliable, complex, and full of bugs,” with poor financial decision-making capabilities. According to Qureshi, the root cause is that core models struggle when faced with tasks outside their original training data, leading to unpredictable (and often costly) outcomes when handling real money.
Missing Reinforcement Learning Data
The Dragonfly partner stressed that the biggest bottleneck is the lack of reinforcement learning based on real-world agent interaction data. Although ample data exists across leading AI labs, none has been applied to a live agentic payment system like OpenClaw. He believes integrating such data would dramatically boost performance and reliability. Qureshi expects next-generation models to emerge in the coming months, pushing agentic payments past the “tinkerer” phase toward early adopters. But mainstream usage, he insisted, is still several years away.
Volume Reality Check
To support his bearish near-term view, Qureshi cited current usage figures: the x402 agent handles roughly $1 million in daily transaction volume, and the Machine Payments Protocol (MPP) is even lower. “Agentic payments will be a huge trend. But it's not here yet,” he wrote. “I had the most bearish take in this article… crypto has a bad habit of getting high on its own supply.”
Long-Term Bullish, Short-Term Patience
Despite the cautious tone, Qureshi remains optimistic about the eventual impact of agentic economies, repeating his conviction that agents will transform how money moves globally. He cited investor Chris Dixon's observation that technologies adopted by enthusiasts late at night often go mainstream within a decade. Agentic payments fit that pattern, Qureshi said, and the core technical direction is sound. His key message to the crypto industry: dial down the timeline hype, build patiently, and don't burn credibility before the real breakthrough arrives.