Elon Musk laid out a more detailed timeline for artificial intelligence on July 26, saying AI’s combined intelligence could exceed the sum of human intelligence in roughly five years and that humans may no longer be dominant in about 10 years. He framed the gap as one far greater than the difference between chimpanzees and humans.
Musk also said AI would outperform humans in nearly every area except “being human” itself. In his view, the most likely outcome is an era of “abundance,” where robots and AI produce more goods and services than people can consume, allowing anyone to have what they want.
He added that by around 2036, money may no longer matter much. Musk said governments could send checks directly to citizens, similar to a universal high income, and argued that a surge in output would make deflation more likely than inflation. He also said conventional taxation and redistribution models may stop working under that framework. At the same time, Musk said he accepts a roughly 10% to 20% chance that AI could lead to human extinction, but described the broader advance of the technology as unstoppable.
On July 26, Elon Musk restated and sharpened his timeline for artificial intelligence.
He said that in about five years, AI’s total intelligence may exceed the combined intelligence of humanity. In about 10 years, humans may no longer be dominant, with the gap in capability becoming far larger than the one between chimpanzees and humans.
Musk said that, aside from the fact of “being human,” AI would be able to do almost everything better.
He described the most likely outcome of AI development as an “age of extreme abundance,” where robots and AI can produce goods and services far beyond what humans are able to consume, making it possible for anyone to have whatever they want.
Musk also said that by around 2036, “money may not matter.” He argued that governments could send checks directly to citizens in a model similar to universal high income. Because output would surge, he said deflation is more likely than inflation, and traditional ideas around taxation and redistribution may break down under that new paradigm.
On risk, Musk said he accepts roughly a 10% to 20% chance that AI could cause human extinction. Even so, he said the momentum behind AI cannot be stopped and called his position a “philosophical conclusion”: if it cannot be stopped, join it and “enjoy the ride.”
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